IMF sees Asia growth shrinking 2.2% in 2020
Print Edition
THE International Monetary Fund revised down its 2020 forecast for the Asian economy to a contraction of 2.2 percent, calling it “the worst outcome for this region in living memory.”
The latest forecast is a downgrade compared with the projection of a 1.6 percent contraction in June. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook shows that a recovery started in the third quarter, though growth engines are not all firing with the same strength across all countries, leading to a “multispeed recovery,” said Jonathan D. Ostry, acting director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department.
The outlook varies by country depending on infection rates and containment measures, the scale and effectiveness of the policy response, reliance on contact-intensive activities, and reliance on external demand.
Advanced economies, while still in recession, are expected to do somewhat better than expected in 2020, reflecting a faster pickup in activity following earlier exit from lockdowns, Ostry noted.
China has seen a strong recovery after the first quarter lockdown, with growth revised up to 1.9 percent this year, “a rare positive figure in a sea of negatives,” Ostry said.
China’s growth, given its role in the region, “is having positive spillovers, for the region and for commodity prices and for broadly participants in the global value chains that China is a big part of,” Ostry said.
Australia will see a contraction of 4.2 percent in 2020 and Japan will shrink by 5.3 percent. South Korea will contract by 1.9 percent, New Zealand by 6.1 percent and India by 10.3 percent.
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