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Will they stay or will they go? Brexit poll result still too hard to predict

Thursday, 23 Jun 2016 07:26:54 | Steve Cannane

Recent polls have put Remain slightly ahead of Leave. (Reuters: Hannibal Hanschke)

Nerves are frayed on both sides of the EU referendum campaign, with neither side confident of victory despite the Remain camp jumping ahead of Leave in some polls and betting markets.

Recent online polls have put the Leave campaign ahead, but phone polls suggest Remain will win.

The betting markets are suggesting there is a 75 per cent chance Remain will win, and the currency markets seem to support this theory.

The sterling dropped last week after the Leave campaign had a run of good polls, but this week the pound recovered after Remain bounced back.

However, currency markets have been known to react to rumours rather than facts and are no safe measure of how this referendum will turn out.

Former Conservative MP and columnist Matthew Parris ventured an opinion based on his gut feeling.

"I think Remain is going to win but I have absolutely no evidence for that," he said.

"The polls show it is neck-and-neck. I think we just can't believe the British public would take such an enormous leap, but maybe they will."

External Link: Lateline Brexit poll

Advocates for both campaigns were out in force on the last day before voting.

There are around 4 million voters who are undecided on which way they will vote.

Parris, an advocate for staying in the EU, believes this will advantage the Remain campaign.

"I think the conventional wisdom would be that people who can't decide are more likely to break in the direction of precaution and not taking the leap," he said.

However, voting is not compulsory in the UK, so whether those who cannot decide may not actually turn up to vote either way.

Those who want to leave the EU have a strong motivation to turn up at the ballot box.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage said at a rally in London, Brexiteers would "crawl over broken glass to vote".

Votes will be counted from when polls shut at 10:00pm on Thursday (7:00am Friday AEST).

Many Britons will stay up through the night to watch the count unfold. Either way it could change the course of history in Europe.

AustraliaPlus


 

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