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December 26, 2011

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Hopes of robust holiday sales

IT'S that time for caroling, eggnog, holiday cheer - and for some, a frantic dash to the mall.

Last-minute shoppers hit stores on Christmas Eve in a surge that American retailers hope will top off a strong holiday shopping season.

Among them was Len Boswell. He started his shopping at 6am at Starbucks. Later in the morning he was at a CVS drugstore in Decatur, Georgia, picking up candy and a neck pillow for his wife.

"I should have done this a couple of weeks ago," acknowledges Boswell, 68, a director of book publishing at a nonprofit body.

Stores may ring up US$469.1 billion during the holiday season, which runs from November through December. The final week before Christmas can account for up to 20 percent of those sales. Retailers tempered their expectations heading into the season because they worried that Americans weren't ready to spend in the weak economy.

But sales have been brisk during the two-month period, rising 2.5 percent from the start of the season on November 1 through last Saturday, according to research firm ShopperTrak, which did not give a dollar figure. As a result, ShopperTrak upgraded its sales growth forecast to 3.7 percent from its 3 percent estimate heading into the season.

"We're seeing good traffic, good sales," said Sherif Mityas, a partner in the retail practice at A.T. Kearney, a management consulting firm. "Even with all the bad news and hesitancy in terms of the economy, consumers are still opening up their wallets more than last year, which is good news."

But at a time when Americans are still concerned about high unemployment, stagnant wages and market uncertainty, retailers aren't willing to leave anything to chance on the final shopping days before Christmas.

Toys R Us and some Macy's have been open 24 hours a day in the days leading up to Christmas. At malls, Abercrombie & Fitch has been offering a blanket 50 percent off on all items while J. Crew and Madewell offered 30 percent off. Retailers' promotional e-mails rose 34 percent from a year ago, according to Responsys, which tracks e-mail activity from over 100 merchants.

"They're clearly putting their best foot forward on promotions right now," said John Morris, analyst at BMO Capital Markets. He estimates that promotional sale activity increased7 percent from last year.




 

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