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August 30, 2016

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US consumer spending up on auto demand

US consumer spending increased for a fourth straight month in July amid strong demand for automobiles, pointing to a pickup in economic growth that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.3 percent last month after a 0.5 percent gain in June.

July’s increase was in line with economists’ expectations. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending also rose 0.3 percent in July after advancing 0.4 percent in June.

Consumer spending appears to have retained some of its momentum from the second quarter, when it grew at a 4.4 percent annual rate, the fastest in nearly two years. That jump helped to mitigate some of the impact of a sharp inventory drop and prolonged business investment downturn.

The US economy grew at a lackluster 1.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter.

US stock futures rose after yesterday’s data, while prices for US Treasuries held earlier gains. The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies.

July’s consumer spending data added to reports on the goods trade deficit, industrial production, durable goods orders and residential construction that have pointed to an acceleration in economic growth early in the third quarter.

The Fed is currently estimating third-quarter GDP growth rising at a 3.4 percent annual pace.

Consumer spending is being driven by a tightening labor market, which is steadily lifting wages. Rising home values and stock market prices, which are boosting household wealth, are also supporting consumption.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a gathering of global central bankers last Friday that she believed the case for raising interest rates had been strengthened in recent months by the “solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation.”

Last month, there was little sign of inflation pressures even as consumer spending firmed.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, added 0.1 percent after a similar gain in June.

In the 12 months through July the core PCE grow 1.6 percent. It has risen by the same margin every month since March. The core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and is running below its 2 percent target.

July consumer spending was lifted by a 1.6 percent surge in purchases of long-lasting manufactured goods such as automobiles. Spending on services rose 0.4 percent.


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