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China speeds up Q1 GDP growth
By Wang Yanlin |
April 15, 2010, Thursday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA managed an annualized gross domestic product growth of 11.9 percent in the first quarter -- the fastest pace in the past two years -- under a "very complicated economic environment," the National Bureau of Statistics said today.
Although the bureau spokesman insisted China's economy was running within a healthy development scope, analysts said that rising consumer prices, industrial production and investments point to risks of overheating.
"China's economic recovery is strengthened. The first-quarter fast growth rate is derived from the effect of the massive stimulus measures and a low comparative base last year," said bureau spokesman Li Xiaochao in Beijing.
"The growth pace is within a positive development scope and China will keep its macroeconomic policies stable -- but more flexible, to deal with the complexities and uncertainties in the world economy."
China's GDP in the first three months amounted to 8.06 trillion yuan (US$1.18 trillion). The growth rate picked up from a gain of 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and laid a solid foundation for China to achieve its goal of an 8-percent GDP increase for this year.
However, some analysts warned of the risks ahead.
"Growth is strong, but there are signs of overheating. With stimulus already partly moved, the key is whether the authorities can steer the economy onto a more sustainable growth path, or whether generalized inflation and an asset bubble will break out in the second half and trigger a bigger policy-induced slowdown for China next year," said Stephen Green, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank (China) Ltd.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 2.2 percent year on year in the January-March period, not far from the target of 3 percent for the whole year and close to the benchmark one-year current deposit rate of 2.25 percent.
Industrial production accelerated 19.6 percent on an annual basis in the first three months, up 14.5 percentage points from the same period of last year, the bureau said.
Fixed-asset investment through March advanced 25.6 percent year on year to 3.5 trillion yuan, down 3.2 percentage points from a year ago but still running at a fast track. Investment in property development surged 35.1 percent to 659.4 billion yuan, up 31 percentage points from the quarter of last year.
Retail sales in the first three months jumped 17.9 percent to 3.63 trillion yuan, compared with an increase of 15 percent a year ago.
Although the bureau spokesman insisted China's economy was running within a healthy development scope, analysts said that rising consumer prices, industrial production and investments point to risks of overheating.
"China's economic recovery is strengthened. The first-quarter fast growth rate is derived from the effect of the massive stimulus measures and a low comparative base last year," said bureau spokesman Li Xiaochao in Beijing.
"The growth pace is within a positive development scope and China will keep its macroeconomic policies stable -- but more flexible, to deal with the complexities and uncertainties in the world economy."
China's GDP in the first three months amounted to 8.06 trillion yuan (US$1.18 trillion). The growth rate picked up from a gain of 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and laid a solid foundation for China to achieve its goal of an 8-percent GDP increase for this year.
However, some analysts warned of the risks ahead.
"Growth is strong, but there are signs of overheating. With stimulus already partly moved, the key is whether the authorities can steer the economy onto a more sustainable growth path, or whether generalized inflation and an asset bubble will break out in the second half and trigger a bigger policy-induced slowdown for China next year," said Stephen Green, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank (China) Ltd.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 2.2 percent year on year in the January-March period, not far from the target of 3 percent for the whole year and close to the benchmark one-year current deposit rate of 2.25 percent.
Industrial production accelerated 19.6 percent on an annual basis in the first three months, up 14.5 percentage points from the same period of last year, the bureau said.
Fixed-asset investment through March advanced 25.6 percent year on year to 3.5 trillion yuan, down 3.2 percentage points from a year ago but still running at a fast track. Investment in property development surged 35.1 percent to 659.4 billion yuan, up 31 percentage points from the quarter of last year.
Retail sales in the first three months jumped 17.9 percent to 3.63 trillion yuan, compared with an increase of 15 percent a year ago.
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