Related News
China's property market seems destined for better days in 2013
FOR more than a week, real estate broker Jack Sun seldom got home from work before 11:30pm. He's not complaining. After a tough 2011 in an uncertain market, the 25-year-old has reason for renewed confidence.
Sun works for Tospur, one of China's leading property research and brokerage houses. He's been working more than 12 hours a day since late November on pre-launch preparations for a commercial title apartment project in the heart of one of the city's major residential communities beyond the Outer Ring Road.
"The market feedback seems good, and the majority of people who have expressed interest in this project are local residents," Sun told Shanghai Daily before the project's official kickoff on December 8. "A lottery will be arranged to decide the priority of home hunters in selecting units."
Most of the units are about 60 square meters in size, costing less than 800,000 yuan (US$127,186). The project, a joint development by China Vanke Co and COFCO Property (Group) Co, mainly targets young people on tight budgets and those who would like to invest in property but are currently banned from involvement in residential title developments.
The distinction between residential and commercial titles has become important in the continuing environment of the government's curbs on property speculation.
Commercial title, which falls under the more commonly used category of "serviced apartment," has an ownership tenure of up to 50 years, compared with the normal 70 years under the traditional "residential title" units. Utility fees at the commercial title units are usually more expensive. Because the properties are categorized as "commercial" rather than "residential," they can be bought without restrictions.
Distinctions aside, there have been clear signs that sentiment is improving in the overall housing market in recent months, both in existing and new homes.
New home purchases in Shanghai in November, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, rose 12 percent from a month earlier to 981,500 square meters, remaining above 800,000 square meters for the seventh straight month, according to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co. Year-on-year, the gain represented a growth of nearly 100 percent.
For the first 11 months of this year, meanwhile, new home sales exceeded 8.1 million square meters across the city, compared with 6.72 million square meters during the whole of 2011, according to Uwin.
Similar robust momentum has appeared in the city's pre-owned housing market.
In that market, 19,744 units changed hands in Shanghai last month, a rise of 21.6 percent from October and a surge of more than 200 percent from the same period a year earlier, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co, a major estate chain in the city, said in its latest report.
Industry analysts are predicting the momentum will probably extend well into the new year, though mild fluctuations may occur.
"The local housing market will probably maintain its strength for the next 12 months, and no significant change in either volume or price seems likely," said Joe Zhou, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle Shanghai. "The market will stabilize further as tightening measures to curb housing speculation remain in place for some time."
The official Xinhua news agency reported earlier this month that the Chinese government will maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies in 2013. It cited a statement issued after a meeting of the country's top leaders, headed by Xi Jinping, that China will expand domestic demand, actively promote urbanization, strengthen real estate controls and support small business, according to Xinhua.
Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications, said he expects a "moderately active" property market in 2013.
"The latest meeting of the Central Politburo, which provided a preview of the country's economic policy stance for next year, sent us a message that there will be little chance for a major change in China's property curbs," Lian toldhexun.com during a recent interview. "A notable rebound in home prices will be impossible, though overall sentiment will remain moderately active."
Nationwide in November, prices of new homes picked up strength from a month earlier in 60 Chinese cities, with 17 urban areas experiencing an increase of more than 1 percent, according to the China Index Academy, which tracks 100 cities around the country. That compared with 56 cities showing gains in October.
Transactions of new residential properties in Shanghai, Beijing and eight other major cities, excluding government-funded affordable housing, rose 7 percent month-on-month and 92 percent from a year earlier to 7.7 million square meters, according to a separate report from E-House China Research and the Development Institute in Shanghai.
Robust sales recorded since May did tend to damp hopes among some prospective homebuyers that prices might be on the wane. That caused some of the fence-sitters to decide to buy now before prices go up further, said Wu Xiaojun, an E-House researcher.
At the same time, an increasing number of real estate developers have begun to revive their appetites to expand land reserves.
Land sales in 10 major cities in November, for instance, hit a 16-month high of 66.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year decreases slowing down for the ninth straight month, E-House said.
"The country's land market is expected to recover at an accelerated pace in December as improving property sales help fill developers' pockets," Wu said. "Meanwhile, local governments are always inclined at year-end to put more parcels on the market, usually with better locations and higher values, to meet annual targets for land supply and raise revenue as well."
China Vanke Co, the country's largest publicly listed homebuilder, sold 11.78 million square meters of housing in the first 11 months of this year, an annual increase of 16 percent, according to a stock exchange filing. By value, sales climbed 9.8 percent to 127.1 billion yuan.
Evergrande Real Estate Group, another leading developer in the country, said in its filing that it sold 84.6 billion yuan of properties during the same period, meeting its yearly sales target of 80 billion yuan a month before schedule.
As for the idea of Chinese authorities expanding property tax authorization to other areas of the country, most analysts say they don't foresee any imminent move in that direction in the next year.
"As we've seen, trial operations of the tax in Shanghai and Chongqing since early last year have so far had very limited impact on home prices because the rates were rather insignificant," said Song Huiyong, a research director at Shanghai Centaline Property Consultants Ltd, operator of the city's largest estate chain by transaction value.
"Personally, I don't expect a massive introduction of similar programs around the country over the next 12 months, before more useful experience can be gained," he added.
Home prices in second- and third-tier cities might encounter some headwinds due to high inventories and insufficient demand, but in top-tier cities like Shanghai, they will remain very stable and likely to pick up some strength, Song said.
Real estate broker Sun thinks along the same lines.
"My income this year should surpass last year's by at least 50 percent," Sun said, without disclosing the exact sum. "Basically, I feel very upbeat for next year's property market because there's still robust demand from end-users."
In an industry where many players were suffering some lean and hungry times not all that long ago, that's reason enough to work 12 hours a day.
Sun works for Tospur, one of China's leading property research and brokerage houses. He's been working more than 12 hours a day since late November on pre-launch preparations for a commercial title apartment project in the heart of one of the city's major residential communities beyond the Outer Ring Road.
"The market feedback seems good, and the majority of people who have expressed interest in this project are local residents," Sun told Shanghai Daily before the project's official kickoff on December 8. "A lottery will be arranged to decide the priority of home hunters in selecting units."
Most of the units are about 60 square meters in size, costing less than 800,000 yuan (US$127,186). The project, a joint development by China Vanke Co and COFCO Property (Group) Co, mainly targets young people on tight budgets and those who would like to invest in property but are currently banned from involvement in residential title developments.
The distinction between residential and commercial titles has become important in the continuing environment of the government's curbs on property speculation.
Commercial title, which falls under the more commonly used category of "serviced apartment," has an ownership tenure of up to 50 years, compared with the normal 70 years under the traditional "residential title" units. Utility fees at the commercial title units are usually more expensive. Because the properties are categorized as "commercial" rather than "residential," they can be bought without restrictions.
Distinctions aside, there have been clear signs that sentiment is improving in the overall housing market in recent months, both in existing and new homes.
New home purchases in Shanghai in November, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, rose 12 percent from a month earlier to 981,500 square meters, remaining above 800,000 square meters for the seventh straight month, according to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co. Year-on-year, the gain represented a growth of nearly 100 percent.
For the first 11 months of this year, meanwhile, new home sales exceeded 8.1 million square meters across the city, compared with 6.72 million square meters during the whole of 2011, according to Uwin.
Similar robust momentum has appeared in the city's pre-owned housing market.
In that market, 19,744 units changed hands in Shanghai last month, a rise of 21.6 percent from October and a surge of more than 200 percent from the same period a year earlier, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co, a major estate chain in the city, said in its latest report.
Industry analysts are predicting the momentum will probably extend well into the new year, though mild fluctuations may occur.
"The local housing market will probably maintain its strength for the next 12 months, and no significant change in either volume or price seems likely," said Joe Zhou, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle Shanghai. "The market will stabilize further as tightening measures to curb housing speculation remain in place for some time."
The official Xinhua news agency reported earlier this month that the Chinese government will maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies in 2013. It cited a statement issued after a meeting of the country's top leaders, headed by Xi Jinping, that China will expand domestic demand, actively promote urbanization, strengthen real estate controls and support small business, according to Xinhua.
Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications, said he expects a "moderately active" property market in 2013.
"The latest meeting of the Central Politburo, which provided a preview of the country's economic policy stance for next year, sent us a message that there will be little chance for a major change in China's property curbs," Lian toldhexun.com during a recent interview. "A notable rebound in home prices will be impossible, though overall sentiment will remain moderately active."
Nationwide in November, prices of new homes picked up strength from a month earlier in 60 Chinese cities, with 17 urban areas experiencing an increase of more than 1 percent, according to the China Index Academy, which tracks 100 cities around the country. That compared with 56 cities showing gains in October.
Transactions of new residential properties in Shanghai, Beijing and eight other major cities, excluding government-funded affordable housing, rose 7 percent month-on-month and 92 percent from a year earlier to 7.7 million square meters, according to a separate report from E-House China Research and the Development Institute in Shanghai.
Robust sales recorded since May did tend to damp hopes among some prospective homebuyers that prices might be on the wane. That caused some of the fence-sitters to decide to buy now before prices go up further, said Wu Xiaojun, an E-House researcher.
At the same time, an increasing number of real estate developers have begun to revive their appetites to expand land reserves.
Land sales in 10 major cities in November, for instance, hit a 16-month high of 66.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year decreases slowing down for the ninth straight month, E-House said.
"The country's land market is expected to recover at an accelerated pace in December as improving property sales help fill developers' pockets," Wu said. "Meanwhile, local governments are always inclined at year-end to put more parcels on the market, usually with better locations and higher values, to meet annual targets for land supply and raise revenue as well."
China Vanke Co, the country's largest publicly listed homebuilder, sold 11.78 million square meters of housing in the first 11 months of this year, an annual increase of 16 percent, according to a stock exchange filing. By value, sales climbed 9.8 percent to 127.1 billion yuan.
Evergrande Real Estate Group, another leading developer in the country, said in its filing that it sold 84.6 billion yuan of properties during the same period, meeting its yearly sales target of 80 billion yuan a month before schedule.
As for the idea of Chinese authorities expanding property tax authorization to other areas of the country, most analysts say they don't foresee any imminent move in that direction in the next year.
"As we've seen, trial operations of the tax in Shanghai and Chongqing since early last year have so far had very limited impact on home prices because the rates were rather insignificant," said Song Huiyong, a research director at Shanghai Centaline Property Consultants Ltd, operator of the city's largest estate chain by transaction value.
"Personally, I don't expect a massive introduction of similar programs around the country over the next 12 months, before more useful experience can be gained," he added.
Home prices in second- and third-tier cities might encounter some headwinds due to high inventories and insufficient demand, but in top-tier cities like Shanghai, they will remain very stable and likely to pick up some strength, Song said.
Real estate broker Sun thinks along the same lines.
"My income this year should surpass last year's by at least 50 percent," Sun said, without disclosing the exact sum. "Basically, I feel very upbeat for next year's property market because there's still robust demand from end-users."
In an industry where many players were suffering some lean and hungry times not all that long ago, that's reason enough to work 12 hours a day.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS
- |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证:沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证:31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证:0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证:沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证:沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.