Experts predict double-dip recession
Source: Agencies |
September 3, 2011, Saturday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
Business leaders and finance experts gathered in Italy offered a downbeat assessment of the global economy yesterday - with several predicting another recession due to a calamitous cocktail of sluggish growth, eurozone dysfunction, and financial market volatility.
The year's events - from natural disasters and violent uprisings to fears of debt defaults - have not only sent shock waves through the financial world but also caused a slump in confidence among consumers and industry.
"There is a significant probability of a double-dip recession," pronounced New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, in opening remarks that lived up to his nickname of "Dr Doom" - earned for forecasting a financial crisis years before the 2008 crash, even as many reveled in the boom times.
On this occasion Roubini seemed to reflect prevailing sentiment at the annual Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como in Cernobbio - although some felt that at least the emerging economies would do fine.
Much of the concern focused on the United States.
"The numbers that we've seen recently for the US on manufacturing, on construction, on consumers' sentiment tell me that the odds have gotten much greater that the US is going to continue to decline and that we are going to be in a formal recession before the end of the year," Harvard University economic professor Martin Feldstein said.
Zhu Min, a former senior Chinese official who in July became deputy director of the International Monetary Fund, offered an outlying glimmer of optimism by suggesting that the negativity ignored the increasingly crucial role of emerging markets like his native country. He predicted emerging markets would still grow at about 6 percent.
The year's events - from natural disasters and violent uprisings to fears of debt defaults - have not only sent shock waves through the financial world but also caused a slump in confidence among consumers and industry.
"There is a significant probability of a double-dip recession," pronounced New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, in opening remarks that lived up to his nickname of "Dr Doom" - earned for forecasting a financial crisis years before the 2008 crash, even as many reveled in the boom times.
On this occasion Roubini seemed to reflect prevailing sentiment at the annual Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como in Cernobbio - although some felt that at least the emerging economies would do fine.
Much of the concern focused on the United States.
"The numbers that we've seen recently for the US on manufacturing, on construction, on consumers' sentiment tell me that the odds have gotten much greater that the US is going to continue to decline and that we are going to be in a formal recession before the end of the year," Harvard University economic professor Martin Feldstein said.
Zhu Min, a former senior Chinese official who in July became deputy director of the International Monetary Fund, offered an outlying glimmer of optimism by suggesting that the negativity ignored the increasingly crucial role of emerging markets like his native country. He predicted emerging markets would still grow at about 6 percent.
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