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Inflation data to decide if US lifts interest rates
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INFLATION numbers from the United States tomorrow could provide the final domino in the Federal Reserve’s track to raise interest rates next month.
Earlier this month a robust report on US employment hardened hopes for the Fed’s first rate increase in nearly a decade and if prices are shown to be rising steadily those views will likely solidify.
Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting will also be published, giving an insight into the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to remove a key sentence on global risks from its policy statement.
“We have had a strong October jobs report, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself referring to a December rate rise as a ‘live possibility’ for the first time,” said Chris Hare, economist at Investec.
“The coming week should shed a little more light on the prospects for tightening this year.”
While most US data have been upbeat, retail sales rose much less in October, suggesting slowing consumer spending could dull hopes of a strong rise in fourth-quarter economic growth.
In China, which has unveiled support measures since last year to avert a sharp slowdown, key data will show how the housing market is performing and whether they support the struggling economy.
“Recently, we have seen an increasing number of cities reporting a sequential home price increase, a trend which we think continued despite a slowdown in home sales growth in October,” said Rob Carnell at ING. “Overall, we believe that China’s growth prospects depend on housing.”
The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, but a pace many say likely overestimated the pace of growth.
Prices fell again in UK last month, data will probably show tomorrow.
With inflation below its 2 percent target, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee won’t be raising its benchmark rate from a record low 0.5 percent until at least April, a Reuters poll found.
British retail sales numbers on Thursday will offer clues as to how consumers are faring.
No change in policy is expected from the Bank of Japan on Friday but it could ease monetary policy further early next year, said nearly half the analysts surveyed by Reuters, as consumer prices fall short of BOJ forecasts.
GDP data today will show Japan fell into a technical recession in the third quarter.
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