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Wan LixinOpinion deputy editor of Shanghai Daily
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Measures and firm base a plus for rebound
Source: Xinhua |
March 30, 2009, Monday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA can be the first country to "regain relatively fast growth" amid the global financial crisis because of its economic foundation and stimulus policies, said a government economist in Beijing on Saturday.
China has several conditions to sustain a relatively strong economic expansion, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, or the Cabinet, at an economic forum. The conditions include the huge potential demand of its vast population and adequate supply of labor force, said Zhang.
On top of that, the record high 950-billion-yuan (US$139 billion) fiscal deficit for 2009, as well as the moderately loose monetary policy and other macro-economic policy adjustments, can at least accelerate economic growth by 2 percentage points, he said.
"I'm fully confident that China's economy will expand by 8 percent year on year, or even faster than that, in 2009," said Zhang, noting that his judgement was based on the assumption that China can grow 6 percent without the stimulus moves.
He told the forum the country's economy may slow to a 6-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter and then gradually pick up, helped by the country's 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package announced last November and the recovering auto and housing markets.
Sales of China-made cars rose 24.7 percent year on year to 827,600 units in February, compared with an annual drop of 14.35 percent in January, said the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Analysts said the data could be distorted by the Lunar New Year, which fell on January this year and on February last year. The festival period usually sees slack sales as a result of celebrations.
The housing market presented a mixed picture, with the area of sold commercial houses in southern Guangdong Province rising 21.5 percent year on year in January and February while in Shanghai it dropped 18.8 percent in February from a year earlier.
Another economist said it will take a longer time to see an obvious rebound in China's economy.
The economy may bottom out in the latter half of this year but won't immediately rebound, said Wang Yiming, a senior researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planner.
China has several conditions to sustain a relatively strong economic expansion, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, or the Cabinet, at an economic forum. The conditions include the huge potential demand of its vast population and adequate supply of labor force, said Zhang.
On top of that, the record high 950-billion-yuan (US$139 billion) fiscal deficit for 2009, as well as the moderately loose monetary policy and other macro-economic policy adjustments, can at least accelerate economic growth by 2 percentage points, he said.
"I'm fully confident that China's economy will expand by 8 percent year on year, or even faster than that, in 2009," said Zhang, noting that his judgement was based on the assumption that China can grow 6 percent without the stimulus moves.
He told the forum the country's economy may slow to a 6-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter and then gradually pick up, helped by the country's 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package announced last November and the recovering auto and housing markets.
Sales of China-made cars rose 24.7 percent year on year to 827,600 units in February, compared with an annual drop of 14.35 percent in January, said the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Analysts said the data could be distorted by the Lunar New Year, which fell on January this year and on February last year. The festival period usually sees slack sales as a result of celebrations.
The housing market presented a mixed picture, with the area of sold commercial houses in southern Guangdong Province rising 21.5 percent year on year in January and February while in Shanghai it dropped 18.8 percent in February from a year earlier.
Another economist said it will take a longer time to see an obvious rebound in China's economy.
The economy may bottom out in the latter half of this year but won't immediately rebound, said Wang Yiming, a senior researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planner.
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