CHINESE consumers simply need to spend more if the economy is to be spared a hard landing. At least, that's the way analysts portray the road to prosperity.

"As net exports continue to weigh down China's pace of economic growth and the outlook darkens, China's export-driven development model has clearly come to an end," said Shi Lei, an economics professor at Fudan University.

"The current growth rate is largely achieved by stable investment, which can't be sustained for long," he added. "The future lies in how China can further stimulate domestic demand."

China's most recent attempt to spur consumer spending has been to encourage more imports to tantalize shoppers.

Last month, the Ministry of Commerce, which is responsible for managing commerce both at home and across borders, sponsored the China Import Forum in Shanghai, the first event of its kind.

Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan told the forum that China may lower taxes on imported consumer goods.

According to the ministry, consumer goods accounted for a mere 5.4 percent of China's imports last year. The majority of goods purchased by China were machinery parts and raw materials - things that feed into industrial production.

More balanced trade

Zhong's statement may have puzzled some people. After all, aren't imports supposed to be the enemy of domestic manufacturers?

The focus on imports is equally odd in a country long known for its slavish attention to exports. China has armies of researchers and economists studying how to boost exports, but few spend any time on the import side of trade. China offers tax rebates for exporters but no incentives for importers.

The nation's large trade surpluses have been pluses in the calculation of gross domestic product, both at the national and local levels. So what's behind this changing of gears?

"We have to clear up misunderstandings," Zhong said. "Imports can fill in industries that we don't have or can complement our weakness in some industries. They are a force to drive up our economy."

Excluding the political need for a more balanced trade, Zhong's explicit call for more imports of consumer goods hangs heavily on the perceived need to get people spending more.

"Consumption increase is structural," Fudan's Professor Shi said. "I bet the ministry is hoping higher-standard consumer goods from overseas can set China again on the route of consumption upgrading."

So how does that work?

Let's take a hypothetical example. A woman buys a quality handbag, and then decides she would also like to purchase a stylish suit to accompany it. Once that's done, she decides a bit more makeup or skin lotion might add to her new look. And while she's at it, wouldn't some new jewelry complete the makeover?

Once a consumer gets into spending mindset, there's no telling what bigger ticket purchases might follow? A car? Even a house? But it all starts with the need for a quality handbag to attract her attention in the first place.

"The example may look a bit idealistic," Shi admitted. "But the ministry should give it a shot because we need more quality goods to stimulate demand."

Raising consumer consumption is far from a new idea. Since 1997, when the Asian financial crisis struck, China has placed a priority on restructuring the economy to stimulate growth and steer the nation away from overdependence on exports and capital investment.

The global financial crisis of 2008, when export markets dried up and investment thinned, gave impetus to the strategy. But efforts to encourage people to spend more have had minimal impact.

Measures taken two years ago, ranging from subsidies for purchasing household appliances in rural areas to discounts on environmental friendly cars, are being phased out. They were deemed effective in keeping afloat China's retail sales but fell short of giving them a significant boost.

In the first three quarters, China's retail sales expanded 17 percent from a year earlier, slowing from last year's pace of 18.4 percent and only mildly exceeding the 16.9 percent growth in the same period of 2009.

Domestic demand is still failing to replace investment as the biggest driver of the economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumption contributed 47.5 percent to China's first-half economic output, while investment accounted for 53.2 percent. Exports had a negative 0.7 percent input.

China's consumption at less than 50 percent of GDP is much lower than the world average of about 70 percent.

Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, earlier pledged that boosting consumer demand will be a priority in implementing strategy under the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015).

Stephen Green, chief economist for China at Standard Chartered, said he remains optimistic about the outlook for Chinese consumption.

Strong income growth

"We believe that domestic consumption will hold up well in 2012, assuming no big hit from an external shock," Green said. "Income growth this year has been generally strong, bolstering China's emerging middle class. With inflation partly controlled and moderate house price deflation expected, we believe consumption should be positively supported."

Many economists note that China is not short of rich people who have the means to spend more.

"Look at the Chinese who don't even blink when they buy luxury goods in foreign countries," said Sun Lijian, another economics professor at Fudan University. "Nobody can deny more Chinese people are now able to afford better products."

In his opinion, the sharp divide in China's society between rich and poor may not be such a bad thing.

"The rich can set an example for the less rich," he said. "The cleavage creates a lasting and powerful motive for people to upgrade their consumption."

Although frugality is deeply etched in the Chinese psyche, especially among older people, more consumption doesn't necessarily mean frivolous spending.

"The government is not teaching people to buy luxury goods," said Pan Yingli, an economics professor at the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. "The government is hoping that better goods, like healthier foods or nicer household appliances, will be available, pushing domestic producers to improve themselves."

More spending by Chinese consumers would definitely be good news for the global economy. But that is another story.