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Other nations' economies to take a hit from China's slowdown
By Vera Ye |
16:55 UTC+8 July 24, 2013
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S economic slowdown is likely to weigh on economies around the world because of their exposure to the nation's exports, commodity prices and financial market channels, according to a report.
One percentage point drop in China's gross domestic product growth would lower global growth outside China by 0.3 percentage points, with a wide variation among economies, Nomura Securities Co said in a report today.
Economies in Asia are expected to take the hardest hit, with growth falling by one percentage point or more in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan as a result of one percentage point decline in Chinese mainland's GDP expansion, the report said.
The impact is also likely to be significant on commodity-producing countries, such as Australia, Malaysia and nations in Latin America, the latter of which are expected to suffer despite being located much further away from China. Growth would drop by 0.7 percentage points, 0.8 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
As for the euro zone, the overall impact of a 1 percentage point fall in China's GDP growth is likely to be a 0.3 percentage point decline in the growth rate of the area.
The United States, the world's largest economy, would register a slight, 0.2 percentage point drop in GDP due to less exposure.
Nomura expects China's GDP to grow by 6.9 percent in 2014 due to both structural and cyclical factors.
"Structurally, China's potential growth is on a downtrend due to a dwindling labor force and a lack of reform," said the research firm. "Cyclically, the monetary policy stance has changed from its loose bias to a tightening bias since the second quarter of 2013."
One percentage point drop in China's gross domestic product growth would lower global growth outside China by 0.3 percentage points, with a wide variation among economies, Nomura Securities Co said in a report today.
Economies in Asia are expected to take the hardest hit, with growth falling by one percentage point or more in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan as a result of one percentage point decline in Chinese mainland's GDP expansion, the report said.
The impact is also likely to be significant on commodity-producing countries, such as Australia, Malaysia and nations in Latin America, the latter of which are expected to suffer despite being located much further away from China. Growth would drop by 0.7 percentage points, 0.8 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
As for the euro zone, the overall impact of a 1 percentage point fall in China's GDP growth is likely to be a 0.3 percentage point decline in the growth rate of the area.
The United States, the world's largest economy, would register a slight, 0.2 percentage point drop in GDP due to less exposure.
Nomura expects China's GDP to grow by 6.9 percent in 2014 due to both structural and cyclical factors.
"Structurally, China's potential growth is on a downtrend due to a dwindling labor force and a lack of reform," said the research firm. "Cyclically, the monetary policy stance has changed from its loose bias to a tightening bias since the second quarter of 2013."
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