PBOC sees slower pace of GDP
Print Edition
CHINA’S economy will likely slow down to 6.8 percent next year with inflation warmer at 1.7 percent, researchers at the People’s Bank of China said in a report yesterday.
“Although downward pressures on growth will persist for a while due to overcapacity, profit deceleration and rising non-performing loans, we expect the number of positive factors will gradually increase in 2016,” they said.
“These supportive factors include the recovery of real estate sales, the lagged impact of macro and structural policies, as well as some modest improvement in external demand.”
The 2016 GDP growth forecast is 0.1 percentage points down from the 2015 forecast, while the Consumer Price Index is 0.2 percentage points higher than the 2015 level.
The authors of the report, led by PBOC chief researcher Ma Jun, said the forecast rate can be reached under firm fiscal policy support and stable monetary policies. Chinese growth dropped to 6.9 percent in the third quarter of this year, the weakest since the global financial crisis and hurt partly by cooling investment.
The PBOC report is the latest in a series of studies predicting China’s continued slowdown in 2016.
In September, the Asian Development Bank revised its 2016 China GDP growth forecast from 7 to 6.7 percent, and in August, the Moody’s Investors Services corrected the forecast down from 6.5 to 6.3 percent.
More recently, the State Information Center, a government think tank, said the economic growth is likely to stay at or above 6.5 percent next year.
The PBOC, however, predicted stronger fixed-asset investment, retail and trade backed by a recovering global economy, warmer domestic real estate market, new infrastructure projects and the effects of macro-economic policies.
In terms of inflation, stable commodity prices and monetary policies will lift the Consumer Price Index, the report said.
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