Rise in global exports seen to slow to 3.7%
Source: Agencies |
April 13, 2012, Friday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
EUROPE'S sovereign debt crisis and other economic shocks may slow the growth in global exports to just 3.7 percent this year, the World Trade Organization said yesterday.
That comes after a slowdown to 5 percent in 2011 and 13.8 percent in 2010, the global trade body said in its annual report. The figures represent the total volume of merchandise exported across borders, accounting for changes in prices and exchange rates.
The forecasts are uncertain due to potential volatility caused by the eurozone crisis, US debt concerns, economic aftershocks of the Japan earthquake and nuclear crisis, flooding in Thailand and the impact of continuing political unrest in the oil-rich Middle East. The estimates assume an oil price above US$100 a barrel.
"More than three years have passed since the trade collapse of 2008-09, but the world economy and trade remain fragile," WTO chief Pascal Lamy said. "The further slowing of trade expected in 2012 shows that the downside risks remain high. We are not yet out of the woods."
The slowdown in 2012 would bring trade growth below the world average rate of 5.4 percent over the last 20 years, the WTO said.
In 2013, the growth rate may rise again, to 5.6 percent, the WTO forecast. This was the first time it predicted a growth rate over a year in advance.
In 2011, developed countries did a bit better than expected, while the US became a net exporter of fuels in large part because of coal exports to Japan, WTO officials said.
The US saw exports grow 7.2 percent in 2011 after a rise of 15.4 percent the year before. The European Union's exports grew 5.2 percent in 2011 after a rise of 11.5 percent in 2010.
Japan's exports fell by 0.5 percent, a sharp turnaround from its 27.5 percent rise in exports the year before, which had made up for the sharp 24.9 percent decline in 2009.
China, the world's biggest exporter, saw its export growth slow to 9.3 percent in 2011 after surging 28.4 percent in 2010.
Measured in dollar terms, the total value of merchandise traded in 2011 was US$18.2 trillion, a jump of 19 percent and an all-time global record.
That comes after a slowdown to 5 percent in 2011 and 13.8 percent in 2010, the global trade body said in its annual report. The figures represent the total volume of merchandise exported across borders, accounting for changes in prices and exchange rates.
The forecasts are uncertain due to potential volatility caused by the eurozone crisis, US debt concerns, economic aftershocks of the Japan earthquake and nuclear crisis, flooding in Thailand and the impact of continuing political unrest in the oil-rich Middle East. The estimates assume an oil price above US$100 a barrel.
"More than three years have passed since the trade collapse of 2008-09, but the world economy and trade remain fragile," WTO chief Pascal Lamy said. "The further slowing of trade expected in 2012 shows that the downside risks remain high. We are not yet out of the woods."
The slowdown in 2012 would bring trade growth below the world average rate of 5.4 percent over the last 20 years, the WTO said.
In 2013, the growth rate may rise again, to 5.6 percent, the WTO forecast. This was the first time it predicted a growth rate over a year in advance.
In 2011, developed countries did a bit better than expected, while the US became a net exporter of fuels in large part because of coal exports to Japan, WTO officials said.
The US saw exports grow 7.2 percent in 2011 after a rise of 15.4 percent the year before. The European Union's exports grew 5.2 percent in 2011 after a rise of 11.5 percent in 2010.
Japan's exports fell by 0.5 percent, a sharp turnaround from its 27.5 percent rise in exports the year before, which had made up for the sharp 24.9 percent decline in 2009.
China, the world's biggest exporter, saw its export growth slow to 9.3 percent in 2011 after surging 28.4 percent in 2010.
Measured in dollar terms, the total value of merchandise traded in 2011 was US$18.2 trillion, a jump of 19 percent and an all-time global record.
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