Trade outlook to remain challenging
Print Edition
CHINA’S foreign trade slowed in December, renewing worries over external and domestic demand under the prospect of a trade war.
Yuan-denominated exports edged up 0.6 percent year on year in December, down from November’s 5.9 percent growth, according to the General Administration of Customs.
Imports rose 10.8 percent year on year, weakening from the previous month’s 13 percent rise.
In US dollar terms, exports were down 6.1 percent, compared to market expectations of a 3.5 percent decline according to a Reuters poll.
Imports rose 3.1 percent, higher than the expected 2.7 percent.
Analysts attributed the weak headline foreign trade growth partly to a high base in 2015, but they also warned of challenges brought about by weak global economic growth and stronger trade protectionism.
“December’s export data indicates that China is lagging behind the recent improvement in Asian exports and thus the country’s trade outlook will remain challenging in 2017,” the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said in a note yesterday. “Sluggish global demand and anti-globalization sentiment will continue to cloud Asia’s export outlook, including China’s.”
The bank said it expected commodity prices to be a swing factor for China’s imports this year, though stabilized domestic demand would provide some support.
Analysts expressed concern over US President-elect Donald Trump’s stance toward China’s trade, which they said could bring about long-term structural weakness in China’s exports.
“Trump’s trade policy will likely motivate US businesses to move their manufacturing facilities away from China, although the latter’s efforts in promoting high-end manufacturing may offset part of the loss,” ANZ said.
At a briefing, Customs spokesman Huang Songping spoke of a complicated international environment and tough domestic economic pressure.
He said “weakness” would be the tone of the global economy, and trade protectionism would limit China’s export growth.
For the full year, Customs’ data showed that exports fell 2 percent to 13.84 trillion yuan (US$2 trillion) from 2015 while imports rose 0.6 percent to 10.49 trillion yuan.
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