WB sees China GDP to grow 7.6%
Print Edition
THE World Bank projected yesterday that China’s economy will grow 7.6 percent this year, beating the government’s target of 7.5 percent.
In the next three to five years, China’s growth will continue to ease because of a rebalancing in the economy, according to the Washington-based bank’s latest report on China’s economy. The bank estimated 7.5 percent growth for next year.
The bank’s upbeat view contrasted with some other forecasts, which range from 7.1 percent to 7.3 percent.
“The prospect of growth falling below the government target will likely trigger accommodative fiscal and monetary policies,” the bank said. “These measures should help the authorities reach the indicative growth target in 2014, but will likely add to current imbalances and vulnerabilities.”
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund said it predicted China to grow by 7.5 percent this year and then slow to around 7 percent in 2015.
In the first quarter, China’s economy grew 7.4 percent from a year earlier, the slowest in 18 months, while it rose 7.7 percent in 2013. April’s economic data, the most recent indicator, also pointed toward a stagnant recovery.
To bolster growth while maintaining structural reforms, China has launched mini stimulus measures in the past two months.
“Economic activity, including industrial production, has shown signs of a pickup in recent weeks,” the bank said. “The recent acceleration, which is likely to continue into the next two quarters, reflects robust consumption, a recovery of external demand and new growth supporting measures.”
China has deepened reform measures since last year to allow the market a bigger role. The measures included managing rapid credit growth better, gradually reducing local government debt and allowing private capital into state-owned enterprises.
“In the medium term, these policy measures will improve the quality of China’s growth — making it more balanced, inclusive and sustainable, which lays the foundation for sound economic development,” said Karlis Smits, senior economist and chief author of the report.
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