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Weak trade data lead to calls for looser monetary policy
By Wang Yanlin |
May 10, 2012, Thursday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S exports and imports weakened more than feared in April, reinforcing calls among analysts for more stimulus measures to bolster growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Exports rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier last month to US$163.2 billion, compared with an 8.9 percent increase in March, the General Administration of Customs said this morning.
Imports edged up 0.3 percent to US$144.8 billion, slowing from March's 5.3 percent rise and contrasting with February's 39.6 percent surge.
They created a trade surplus of US$18.4 billion last month, more than March's US$5.3 billion. In February, China reported a trade deficit of US$31.5 billion, the first in one year and the largest in a decade.
"Both exports and imports weakened more than expected," said Xue Jun, an analyst at CITIC Securities Co. "Imports suffered a stronger setback due to sluggish domestic demand, which is a major reason for the rising surplus."
Zhang Zhiwei, an analyst at Nomura, said the set of weak trade data reinforced his view that policymakers' priorities should lie in promoting growth.
"We expect further policy loosening, with two bank reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, the first likely this month," Zhang said.
The latest trade data cast doubt on the credibility of the official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of China's manufacturing activities, which rose to a 13-month high of 53.3 in April.
While weak imports indicate domestic demand remains uncertain, the outlook for external demand is also cloudy.
At the spring session of the China Import and Export Fair, also known as the Canton Fair, which was concluded last week, contracts worth US$36 billion were signed, a drop of 2.3 percent from the same period of last year and a decline of 4.8 percent from the autumn session. It was the first year-on-year decline at the fair since the spring of 2009, which was at the end of the global economic downturn.
In the first four months, China's trade expanded 6 percent to US$1.16 trillion with a surplus of US$19.3 billion.
Trade with the debt-stricken European Union rose 0.3 percent to US$170.5 billion between January and April, less than the 2.6 percent rise in the first quarter.
Deals with emerging markets continued to improve as shipments with Russia and Brazil increased 27.7 percent and 14.4 percent respectively.
Shanghai's trade rose 2.1 percent on an annual basis to US$136.9 billion in the first four months, the Customs data showed.
Exports rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier last month to US$163.2 billion, compared with an 8.9 percent increase in March, the General Administration of Customs said this morning.
Imports edged up 0.3 percent to US$144.8 billion, slowing from March's 5.3 percent rise and contrasting with February's 39.6 percent surge.
They created a trade surplus of US$18.4 billion last month, more than March's US$5.3 billion. In February, China reported a trade deficit of US$31.5 billion, the first in one year and the largest in a decade.
"Both exports and imports weakened more than expected," said Xue Jun, an analyst at CITIC Securities Co. "Imports suffered a stronger setback due to sluggish domestic demand, which is a major reason for the rising surplus."
Zhang Zhiwei, an analyst at Nomura, said the set of weak trade data reinforced his view that policymakers' priorities should lie in promoting growth.
"We expect further policy loosening, with two bank reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, the first likely this month," Zhang said.
The latest trade data cast doubt on the credibility of the official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of China's manufacturing activities, which rose to a 13-month high of 53.3 in April.
While weak imports indicate domestic demand remains uncertain, the outlook for external demand is also cloudy.
At the spring session of the China Import and Export Fair, also known as the Canton Fair, which was concluded last week, contracts worth US$36 billion were signed, a drop of 2.3 percent from the same period of last year and a decline of 4.8 percent from the autumn session. It was the first year-on-year decline at the fair since the spring of 2009, which was at the end of the global economic downturn.
In the first four months, China's trade expanded 6 percent to US$1.16 trillion with a surplus of US$19.3 billion.
Trade with the debt-stricken European Union rose 0.3 percent to US$170.5 billion between January and April, less than the 2.6 percent rise in the first quarter.
Deals with emerging markets continued to improve as shipments with Russia and Brazil increased 27.7 percent and 14.4 percent respectively.
Shanghai's trade rose 2.1 percent on an annual basis to US$136.9 billion in the first four months, the Customs data showed.
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