Global energy use to grow a third
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GLOBAL energy use is set to grow by one third over the next 25 years, driven mostly by emerging economies, the International Energy Agency said yesterday.
Energy consumption in the most developed nations is expected to decline over the same period, it said in its annual World Energy Outlook.
The main drivers for increased overall energy consumption will be India, China, Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the report said.
But energy use is projected to drop by 15 percent by 2040 in the European Union, 12 percent in Japan and 3 percent in the US on the back of increased energy efficiency, energy savings and demographic trends.
The use of low-carbon fuels and technologies is rising, and the share of non-fossil fuels in the total mix is set to rise to 25 percent by 2040 from 19 percent now, IEA said.
This trend confirmed what the IEA called a “tantalizing hint” that economic growth will longer systematically translate into higher CO2 emissions.
“Pledges made in advance of COP21 promise to give new impetus to the move towards a lower-carbon and more efficient energy system, but do not alter the picture of rising global needs for energy,” the Paris-based IEA noted.
COP21 refers to a key UN climate change summit taking place in Paris from the end of this month, tasked with producing a climate rescue pact.
Among fossil fuels, natural gas, the least carbon-intensive, is the only one set to see its share rise, the report added.
“Where it replaces more carbon-intensive fuels or backs up the integration of renewables, natural gas is a good fit for a gradually decarbonizing energy system,” the IEA said.
As demand for oil picks up, the oil price may recover gradually to US$80 per barrel in 2020, IEA said.
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