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Oil jumps above US$52 as stock market surges

OIL prices surged nearly 9 percent yesterday as investors focused on a weaker dollar, rising stock markets and the hope that the U.S. economy has finally bottomed out.

Natural gas prices also rose even though a government report said U.S. inventories remain well above historical levels.

Price changes in both commodities directly affect the American economy. A jump in crude prices can influence everything from how much it costs to fill up at the gas pump to the cost of making golf balls, shampoo and thousands of other petroleum-based products.

Natural gas is used around the U.S. to make electricity, so its price affects how much power companies want to charge rate payers.

Benchmark crude for May delivery rose US$4.25 yesterday to settle at US$52.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent prices gained US$4.31 to settle at US$52.75 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Natural gas for May delivery added 8.7 cents to settle at US$3.782 per 1,000 cubic feet.

"We're getting a bounce today, but I'm not sure if it will go much higher," said Peter Beutel, oil analyst at Cameron Hanover. "The market has a lot of reasonably negative factors going into it."

A massive surplus of crude has kept prices low this year, and government reports said that U.S. storage houses are only getting more bloated. They're now brimming with more oil than they've had in 16 years as manufacturers shutter factories and millions of laid off workers stay home.

The Labor Department said yesterday unemployment levels are the highest in more than 26 years. Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose to a seasonally adjusted 669,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 657,000.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration also reported yesterday that natural gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states stayed at 1.65 trillion cubic feet for the week ended March 27.

That's 32.1 percent above the inventory level from a year ago and 22.4 percent above the five-year average, according to the government data.

Despite swollen gas inventories and the grim jobless report, investors pumped more money into oil. Prices started climbing overnight and were already up about US$2 a barrel as trading opened on the Nymex.

Besides the stock market, a weaker dollar helped boost crude prices. Oil is traded in U.S. currency and foreign investors can buy more when the dollar drops.

The 16-nation euro jumped to US$1.3431, and the British pound rose to US$1.4666 from US$1.4447. But the dollar gained against the Japanese yen, rising to 99.33 from 98.65 yen.

Crude prices aren't moving because of supply or demand, but because of "the perceived imbalance in the U.S. and European economies," Alaron Trading Corp. analyst Phil Flynn said.

"Seems like the world now is running to the EU as a safe haven, and it makes the dollar much weaker, and commodities that are priced in dollars are moving much higher today," he said.

The Commerce Department also said orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8 percent in February. That's much higher than analysts expected and it reversed six straight monthly declines.

Still, investors continue to ignore batches of pessimistic reports about the economy, snapping up crude stocks even though global demand has failed to cut into a vast oil surplus, analyst Stephen Schork said.

After months of depressed prices, "this is a market that's getting ready to turn," Schork said. "Even though there's nothing bullish in the fundamentals, you have to start respecting it. I have to start respecting it."

Many analysts also expect tighter supplies in the future as companies cut back on developing new sources of oil and OPEC makes good on promises to slash production.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has pledged to reduce output quotas by 4.2 million barrels a day in hopes of artificially boosting prices. Analysts say the group hasn't completed its goal, but they've noticed a sharp drop in crude flowing out of OPEC countries.

Tanker tracker Oil Movements said yesterday that OPEC's crude shipments are expected to drop another 960,000 barrels per day for the four-week period to April 18.

Elsewhere, oil companies and Gulf state ministers warn that the plunge in crude prices has forced them to reduce investment in new production.

"If prices stay low for a long time future supply growth will be impossible, leading to another price run-up in the future," Qatar Energy Minister Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiyah told an oil industry conference in Paris.

Al-Attiyah said crude prices "must rise to a level that supports investment," and said that in his opinion, US$50 a barrel "is the pragmatic price."

France's largest company said it may not achieve its target of investing €18 billion (US$23.84 billion) this year. Total SA Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said some projects are likely to be "slightly delayed."

"Definitely this crisis will leave strong traces in the long term and we will probably not see the same world anymore," he said.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery rose 9.81 cents to settle at US$1.4698 a gallon and heating oil gained 9.33 cents to settle at US$1.4391 a gallon.


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