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April 12, 2013

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Mobile devices may turn out to be 'horrific' for ailing PC market

THE ailing personal computer market is getting weaker, and it's starting to look as if it will never fully recover as a new generation of mobile devices reshapes the way people use technology.

The latest evidence of the PC's infirmity emerged with the release of two somber reports showing unprecedented falls in sales of desktop and laptop machines during the first three months of the year.

"This is horrific news for PCs," said BGC Financial analyst Colin Gillis. "It's all about mobile computing now. We have definitely reached the tipping point."

First-quarter shipments of PCs fell 14 percent worldwide from the same time last year, according to International Data Corp. That's the deepest quarterly drop since the firm started tracking the industry in 1994. Another research firm, Gartner Inc, pegged the first-quarter decline at 11 percent.

The deviation stemmed in part from the firms' slightly different definitions of PCs.

No matter how things are parsed, the PC market is in the worst shape since IBM released a desktop machine in 1981. PC sales have now fallen from their year-ago levels in four consecutive quarters, a slide that has been accelerating even amid signs that the overall economy is getting healthier.

PCs are going out of style because they typically cost more than smartphones and tablets, and aren't as convenient to use. Most PCs sell for US$500 to US$1,500 while the initial out-of-pocket expense for a smartphone runs as low as US$99 while an array of tablets sell for US$200 to US$300.

Apple's late CEO Steve Jobs, whose company propelled the mobile computing revolution with the 2007 release of the iPhone, declared that the world was entering a "post-PC era" shortly after the iPad came out three years ago.

In a June 2010 appearance at a technology conference, Jobs likened challenges facing the PC industry to what happened to trucks in the US decades ago as a shift away from farming caused more people to move into cities where they wanted to drive cars instead. "I think PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs predicted at the time. "Less people will need them."

Over 300 million PCs may still be sold worldwide this year. Tablet computers, such as the iPad, is catching up rapidly. Nearly 200 million of these deices could be sold this year. Worldwide smartphone sales could surpass 1 billion units this year, Gillis predicted.

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