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Future growth will concentrate in 3 London areas
Three areas in East London — Canary Wharf, the Royal Docks and the Olympic Park — create the most significant concentration of development and regeneration activity in London. As Europe’s largest and fastest growing city, this is where a large part of London’s future growth will be accommodated.
Links to the rest of London will be noticeably improved by the opening of the Crossrail high-speed train line in 2018. The line will drastically cut travel times across London and will link the area to the key areas of business and wealth creation in the City and the West End.
Canary Wharf is currently best known as one of Europe’s leading financial and business employment clusters. With significant residential development being undertaken at Wood Wharf and other sites around Canary Wharf, the area’s profile as a residential location will continue to rise over time.
The Royal Docks provides the largest land area in London for development. When completed, it will provide a new urban zone featuring creative commercial districts, like Silvertown and the Asian Business Port, as well as large-scale residential developments centered around the docks, the River Thames and several parks and open spaces. All of this is within 18 minutes of Bond Street via Crossrail and within 10 minutes via the Docklands Light Railway of the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park.
At the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, substantial new infrastructure was completed as part of the Olympic legacy. The park is well served by transport and amenity infrastructure, including a growing commercial district. Over time, as developments mature, this area will compete with Canary Wharf as a residential location for City and Canary Wharf workers.
The growth in population within these areas is set to outstrip the London average in the coming years. As a result, demand for housing in the area is likely to remain high in comparison to the rest of the city.
Royal Docks
If developers carry through with projects currently planned, we see strong potential for future value growth through better amenities and improvements to the public realm.
The redevelopment of the Royal Docks commenced in 1995 with the implementation of Britannia Village and ExCel. A spate of development at the beginning of this century was tempered by a slow pace of delivery and the failure of key large-scale projects to get off the ground.
However, with Crossrail approaching fast, developers and purchasers have become much more active. The past nine months have seen a variety of new residential-led schemes being launched from Canning Town to Royal Wharf. Initial results point to very strong sales volumes, with the physical nature of the schemes aiding rapid completion of units.
On the demand side, population projections by the Greater London Authority suggest that in the Royal Docks area there will be a 103 percent increase in the resident population by 2028. In absolute terms, this significant growth represents an increase of 14,050 persons. However, we see the potential for greater growth simply due to the speed in which schemes are being sold. By comparison, London is set for growth of just 16 percent over the same period.
Nearby London City Airport is a strong source of business and employment investment, which aids residential demand. Serving 30 UK and European destinations, about a million passengers a year currently pass through the airport. It has plans in place to accommodate 8 million passengers by 2030 to support the growth of London and the continued demand for business travel. The use of smaller aircraft and a ban on night flights reduce noise nuisance for local residents. Silvertown, the Asian Business Park and Oxley Holdings’ and Ballymore’s collaboration for thousands of homes at Royal Wharf are among the largest schemes planned.
Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park
The main physical legacy of the 2012 Olympics was the regeneration of the Olympic Park, centered in the Lee Valley and adjacent to Stratford, an historically underdeveloped part of London.
The Westfield Stratford City development is the largest urban shopping mall in Europe, while plans to build up to 11,000 new homes in five new neighborhoods clustered around 65 kilometers of waterways and 111 acres of woods, hedgerows and wildlife habitat are set to transform the area in the coming years.
The area making up Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park is set for a 65 percent rise in population between now and 2028. Given these ambitions, good transport infrastructure is vital. The area is already well served by the London Underground, the DLR, bus routes and the Emirates Air line, London’s only cross-river cable car.
With major pre-lets of new office space, including of 23,225 square meters to Transport for London and 46,450 square meters to the Financial Conduct Authority, the area is establishing itself as a place to work as well as live.
Canary Wharf
Canary Wharf is an established business and residential district in central London and, as such, regeneration here is well advanced. Despite the area’s relative maturity, there is still scope for future growth.
According to employment forecasts by Experian, more than 60,000 additional individuals will be working in Tower Hamlets, the London borough in which Canary Wharf is located, by 2028. The residential population of Canary Wharf is expected to jump by 41 percent in the same period.
Two factors underpin longer-term growth in Canary Wharf. One is the arrival of Crossrail; the other is the development of Wood Wharf.
While there is an established trend for some who work in Canary Wharf to live nearby, the ease of travelling to West London from 2018, as well as the new development and infrastructure in the pipeline in Canary Wharf itself, will make it a more attractive option for families, whether or not they work nearby.
Wood Wharf is a mixed-use development, planned for the eastern edge of Canary Wharf, which will add an additional 3,000 homes to what will be the first big extension to the business district since the financial crash.
Greenwich Peninsular and Woolwich Arsenal
Further south and east of the areas discussed above, the Greenwich Peninsular and Woolwich Arsenal are logical areas for future housing and employment growth. With the existing DLR and Jubilee Line connections soon to be enhanced by Crossrail, these areas are increasingly tied into the wider regeneration story of East London.
When the Woolwich Crossrail station opens in 2018, about a dozen trains an hour will link this corner of southeast London with Canary Wharf and the West End, as well as Heathrow. By gaining a new “express” route into the employment centers at both Canary Wharf and the City, commuter times from Woolwich will be dramatically reduced. As a result, we would expect to see sustained demand for properties in the area surrounding the new station. The creation of a new interchange at Woolwich between Crossrail, the DLR and mainline suburban rail services from Dartford and Gravesend may help to establish Woolwich as a hub for southeast London.
The 1.21-square-kilometer Greenwich Peninsula site is being transformed into a new mixed-use residential and commercial quarter, capitalizing on the area’s transport links and development potential. At the heart of the scheme is a public space and park system, with views out over the Thames, Canary Wharf and the Thames Barrier. Residential areas, together with retail, schools and community facilities, are located around these public spaces and parks.
The ambitions to create mixed-use neighborhoods elsewhere in London, underpinned by good public transport links to financial and business centers, should serve to underpin future price rises.
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