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Inflated assessment a risk for China’s housing market: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

INFLATED assessment of real estate properties remains a prevalent risk in 35 large- and medium-sized Chinese cities with Shenzhen, Xiamen and Shanghai topping the "most risky" list, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in an annual report released today.

Beijing, Nanjing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Shijiazhuang and Fuzhou are also among the Top 10 list, according to a report released jointly by the National Academy of Economic Strategy of CASS and City and Competitiveness Research Center of CASS, which tracks holistic risks in the country's residential property market.

"The domestic housing market will in general cool down and stabilize in 2017 accompanied by a new round of short-term correction," said Ni Pengfei, director of City and Competitiveness Research Center of CASS. "The correction, though with uncertainties, may last for about one year and we will probably see diversified and polarized performances among the cities."

In particular, housing prices in the country will climb at a slower pace on average next year with those registering the fastest growth previously, mainly first- and selected second-tier cities, suffering larger setbacks, said the annual report on development of housing market in China. In third- and fourth-tier cities, meanwhile, polarized performances are expected.

On property sales, a rather significant retreat in transaction volume is highly likely next year while in terms of investment on real estate development, growth pace will decelerate in 2017 compared to this year.

Overall inventory of new homes will continue to drop despite a slower rate with destocking pressure in third- and fourth-tier cities remaining continually high, according to the report.


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