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Limited impact on home prices
By Cao Qian |
October 14, 2010, Thursday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
THE latest round of tightening policies by both the central and local governments on the property market will trim transaction volumes notably over the coming months but their impact on housing prices over the short and long terms may be limited, two analysts said.
"Restriction on the number of homes a family can purchase, in my opinion the toughest-ever policy launched by the local government to clamp down on speculation, is rather a short-term stopgap and does not address the core problem of the market," said Albert Lau, executive director of China operation at Savills, an international real estate firm. "However, it will help buy some time for the government to come up with a more comprehensive solution which may include a property tax, increased supply of affordable housing or more investment channels available to the people."
In the short- to mid-term, transactions of homes will fall amid stable housing prices while in the longer run, prices will continue their northward trend as the fundamentals of the residential market remain unchanged so long as the economy maintains its growth, Lau said.
His view was also shared by Michael Klibaner, head of research for China operations at Jones Lang LaSalle.
"As a result of the new polices, home buyers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude again and therefore transactions are expected to drop significantly over the coming few months," Klibaner said. "While the new round of tightening polices will have increasing pressure on home prices, minor adjustments, say within 5 percent, should be anticipated."
He sees no respite from rising home prices due to an expanding economy and increasing personal income.
The State Council has ordered banks to stop giving mortgages to buyers of third or more homes and raised minimum down-payment ratio for first-home buyers.
"Restriction on the number of homes a family can purchase, in my opinion the toughest-ever policy launched by the local government to clamp down on speculation, is rather a short-term stopgap and does not address the core problem of the market," said Albert Lau, executive director of China operation at Savills, an international real estate firm. "However, it will help buy some time for the government to come up with a more comprehensive solution which may include a property tax, increased supply of affordable housing or more investment channels available to the people."
In the short- to mid-term, transactions of homes will fall amid stable housing prices while in the longer run, prices will continue their northward trend as the fundamentals of the residential market remain unchanged so long as the economy maintains its growth, Lau said.
His view was also shared by Michael Klibaner, head of research for China operations at Jones Lang LaSalle.
"As a result of the new polices, home buyers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude again and therefore transactions are expected to drop significantly over the coming few months," Klibaner said. "While the new round of tightening polices will have increasing pressure on home prices, minor adjustments, say within 5 percent, should be anticipated."
He sees no respite from rising home prices due to an expanding economy and increasing personal income.
The State Council has ordered banks to stop giving mortgages to buyers of third or more homes and raised minimum down-payment ratio for first-home buyers.
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