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Wan LixinOpinion deputy editor of Shanghai Daily
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Dubai shoppers now target bargains
By Raissa Kasolowsky |
April 19, 2009, Sunday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
THE homages to Pharaonic Egypt, ice rinks and shark-filled aquariums in Dubai's many malls still attract crowds, but retail in the Gulf Arab boomtown is looking fragile as luxury-lovers turn into bargain-hunters.
More than 40 malls in the region's capital of consumerism stock everything from Chinese imports to designer goods: their extravagant features are designed to lure tourists who account for a significant chunk of business.
But as the global downturn caps consumer spending from Britain to India, retail - which generates about a third of Dubai's gross domestic product - is slowing markedly.
"This year will be the litmus test for retailers in the region," said Neil Tunbridge, head of retail services at a Dubai-based consultancy.
"They will just be trying to get through the year with their operating systems intact."
Thilo Ahrend, a German tourist passing through on a stopover from the Maldives, encapsulates consumer hesitation. "I have to wait until I know how this financial crisis is going to affect me," he said in the Mall of the Emirates, home to the world's largest indoor ski slope.
"But I think if I came to Dubai just to shop, I would stop coming and just stay at home."
The summer months - when fewer Western tourists visit the emirate to avoid stifling heat and unemployed white-collar expatriates are likely to pull their children out of schools to head home - will be especially tough, analysts said.
Dubai lacks the oil revenues of neighboring Abu Dhabi, the main contributor to the federal budget.
Mohi-din Bin Hendi, president of retail conglomerate Bin Hendi Enterprises, which distributes luxury brands such as Brioni and Calvin Klein, said February sales for luxury products were down between 25 and 30 percent from a year ago.
"There are still people buying but they are being careful not to spend their money," said Bin Hendi, who depends for about 60 percent of his business on tourists, particularly from Russia and neighboring countries. "They have started spending wisely, not lavishly," he said.
Growth forecast
His group, which operates in India as well as the Gulf Arab region, has significantly cut its growth forecast for this year. "Estimated growth for 2009 was between 35 and 40 percent, which was humongous. Now it's somewhere normal at between 5 and 10 percent," he said.
Dubai's transformation from desert backwater to commercial hub has attracted retailers from around the world, including Spain's Inditex, owner of fashion chain Zara, British luxury retailer Harvey Nichols and Italian designer brand Fendi.
This spurred a real estate boom in the emirate that saw retail space increase at a dizzying rate. In 2008, leasable mall space rose 28 percent to 21.4 million square feet (1.9 million square meters), according to a study by Jones Lang Lasalle. By the end of this year, that is expected to rise to 30 million square feet, said the study, published in February.
But after years of rampant growth, plans to expand existing malls or build new ones are being put on hold. Nakheel, the government-owned developer of Dubai's palm-shaped islands, said in March it was delaying its US$3 billion mall expansion plans.
This led Australia's largest department store, Myer Ltd, to put planned expansion into the emirate on hold: its new outlets would have been sited in Nahkeel's new malls.
The emirate's annual shopping festival, which was first held in 1996 and draws tourists from around the world with a month of discounts, had its budget cut and shifted focus toward attracting visitors from neighboring Arab countries and India and away from recession-hit Europe, organizers said.
Although official statistics from the emirate's international airport show passenger traffic is still rising - by 6 percent in January to 3.3 million travelers - other measures suggest tourism is falling.
Latest preliminary data showed Dubai's hotel occupancy rates fell 14 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2008, the most recent figures available.
"We have seen a bit of change in the last three months," said Fareed Abdelrahman of Majid al-Futtaim Group. "The tourism market is not the same as it was."
More than 40 malls in the region's capital of consumerism stock everything from Chinese imports to designer goods: their extravagant features are designed to lure tourists who account for a significant chunk of business.
But as the global downturn caps consumer spending from Britain to India, retail - which generates about a third of Dubai's gross domestic product - is slowing markedly.
"This year will be the litmus test for retailers in the region," said Neil Tunbridge, head of retail services at a Dubai-based consultancy.
"They will just be trying to get through the year with their operating systems intact."
Thilo Ahrend, a German tourist passing through on a stopover from the Maldives, encapsulates consumer hesitation. "I have to wait until I know how this financial crisis is going to affect me," he said in the Mall of the Emirates, home to the world's largest indoor ski slope.
"But I think if I came to Dubai just to shop, I would stop coming and just stay at home."
The summer months - when fewer Western tourists visit the emirate to avoid stifling heat and unemployed white-collar expatriates are likely to pull their children out of schools to head home - will be especially tough, analysts said.
Dubai lacks the oil revenues of neighboring Abu Dhabi, the main contributor to the federal budget.
Mohi-din Bin Hendi, president of retail conglomerate Bin Hendi Enterprises, which distributes luxury brands such as Brioni and Calvin Klein, said February sales for luxury products were down between 25 and 30 percent from a year ago.
"There are still people buying but they are being careful not to spend their money," said Bin Hendi, who depends for about 60 percent of his business on tourists, particularly from Russia and neighboring countries. "They have started spending wisely, not lavishly," he said.
Growth forecast
His group, which operates in India as well as the Gulf Arab region, has significantly cut its growth forecast for this year. "Estimated growth for 2009 was between 35 and 40 percent, which was humongous. Now it's somewhere normal at between 5 and 10 percent," he said.
Dubai's transformation from desert backwater to commercial hub has attracted retailers from around the world, including Spain's Inditex, owner of fashion chain Zara, British luxury retailer Harvey Nichols and Italian designer brand Fendi.
This spurred a real estate boom in the emirate that saw retail space increase at a dizzying rate. In 2008, leasable mall space rose 28 percent to 21.4 million square feet (1.9 million square meters), according to a study by Jones Lang Lasalle. By the end of this year, that is expected to rise to 30 million square feet, said the study, published in February.
But after years of rampant growth, plans to expand existing malls or build new ones are being put on hold. Nakheel, the government-owned developer of Dubai's palm-shaped islands, said in March it was delaying its US$3 billion mall expansion plans.
This led Australia's largest department store, Myer Ltd, to put planned expansion into the emirate on hold: its new outlets would have been sited in Nahkeel's new malls.
The emirate's annual shopping festival, which was first held in 1996 and draws tourists from around the world with a month of discounts, had its budget cut and shifted focus toward attracting visitors from neighboring Arab countries and India and away from recession-hit Europe, organizers said.
Although official statistics from the emirate's international airport show passenger traffic is still rising - by 6 percent in January to 3.3 million travelers - other measures suggest tourism is falling.
Latest preliminary data showed Dubai's hotel occupancy rates fell 14 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2008, the most recent figures available.
"We have seen a bit of change in the last three months," said Fareed Abdelrahman of Majid al-Futtaim Group. "The tourism market is not the same as it was."
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