Surprise drop in export dents China trade
Print Edition
CHINA’s exports fell for the first time in three months in September, dragging down the trade growth of the world’s second-largest economy, data from the General Administration of Customs showed yesterday.
Exports lost 0.3 percent from a year earlier, falling to US$185.6 billion last month.
This compares with a jump of 7.2 percent in August and is far below market expectations.
Imports remained resilient, however, expanding 7.4 percent year on year to US$170.4b — up from a gain of 7 percent a month earlier. China recorded a trade surplus of US$15.2 billion in September — narrowing from US$28.5 billion in August and 44.7 percent less than the same month last year.
September’s trade grew 3.3 percent annually, softening from the rise of 7.1 percent in August.
Some analysts attributed the September slowdown to the date of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year. In 2012, the three-day holiday included only the last day of September, but this year it fell in the middle of the month.
However, Liu Ligang, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said the strong yuan has eroded the country’s export competitiveness as well. “Downside risks to China’s economy remain,” Liu said. “Our preliminary comparison showed the port throughput indeed slowed in major wharfs last month.”
Liu said the sharp decline in the trade surplus may lead to downside risks to the yuan exchange rate in the short term.
By destination, China’s exports to the US rose 4.2 percent on an annual basis last month, slowing from 6 percent growth in August. Exports to the European Union grew at 1.1 percent, down from August’s 2.1 percent increase.
China’s economy had shown signs of recovery recently, with major business activity data exceeding expectations.
But some analysts said the data may turn disappointing in September due to the limited effect of China’s mini-stimulus.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist for China at JPMorgan, said China’s growth momentum may fade in the last quarter due to just small improvements in demand at home and abroad.
Yet China is still likely to replace the US to become the world’s largest trader this year, despite the possibility of continued deteriorating trade performance for the rest of 2013.
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