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Where’s China going? It’s all in the next 5-year plan vision
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CHINA’S five-year plans have served as economic and social blueprints for the nation’s dynamic growth, setting forth the goals driving industrial upgrading, advances in science and technology, improvements in standards of living and China’s emerging global presence. The nation is now poised to adopt its 15th Five-Year (2026-30) Plan.
Former South African diplomat Gert Grobler, in observing the process, said, the plans “serve as a balance between continuity and flexibility, a combination of central guidance and local practice.”
China began setting forth its visions for the future when it started formulating the plans in 1953, updating them every five years to reflect domestic and international changes and results of prior plans.
In the 14th Five-Year (2021-25) Plan, China’s economic strength has been significantly enhanced. The country’s gross domestic product reached a record of 140.2 trillion yuan (US$20 trillion) last year after an average annual growth of 5.4 percent. China has grown to become the world’s second-largest economy.
The 15th Five-Year Plan has been adopted by the nation’s top political body and goes to the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in March for final approval.
The World Economic Forum, after reviewing the plan, said it is “not a continuation of business-as-usual, but rather as a recalibrated strategy for a world that looks far more unpredictable.”
Neil Thomas, a fellow in Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the BBC, “Western policy works on election cycles, but Chinese policymaking operates on planning cycles. Five-year plans spell out what China wants to achieve, signal the direction leadership wants to go and move resources toward these predefined conclusions.”
Among the many goals delineated in the new five-year plan is a push for higher-quality development and substantial improvement in the nation’s self-reliance in science and technology.
These are not new concepts, but are being raised to an unprecedented level. Guo Qijia, a researcher at the National Information Center, said progress in the next five years will be measured from two perspectives.
“First, China’s economic growth should put quality of development on par with volume of development,” Guo said. “Neither can be sacrificed for the other. It is a delicate balance because reasonable growth in quantity is needed to ensure sufficient support for effective growth in quality.
As to the second point, he pointed out, “Growth should serve the common prosperity for all people.”
In the past five years, China supported the transition of many traditional industries into manufacturing dynamos in realms such as new-energy vehicles, infrastructure, green technologies and biomedicine.
To effect such changes, the country has become a recognized pioneer in advanced science and technology. It is home to more than 500,000 technology companies and 26 Chinese science-technology industrial clusters. Innovations in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and premium chipmaking have catapulted Chinese companies to the forefront of global prominence.
“China is striding forward from a global manufacturing giant to a global innovation hub,” according to the draft of the new five-year plan. At the same time, the plan stresses the need for global collaboration in a tightly knit world.
“China’s resolve to expand the opening of its market to the world won’t waver,” President Xi Jinping said when the new five-year plan was unveiled.
“Its commitment to shared development opportunities and promotion of economic globalization won’t waver.”
He added, “Amid this century of changes fraught with uncertainties, the 15th Five-Year Plan will enable China to continue acting as a catalyst and stabilizer for world peace and development.”
China has indeed continued the process of opening its markets to the world. The nation hosts 22 pilot free trade zones across the country, serving as “test fields” for deregulated trade. The China International Import Expo, the Canton Fair, the China International Fair for Trade in Services and the China International Consumer Products Expo have expanded the scope for foreign traders and investors.
China is a major force in world trade, with total goods volume ranking first globally. It has been expanding trade with emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia. China-Europe freight trains now connect the country with 26 European countries.
China has also strived to upgrade its business environment to international standards, including the implementation of a law-based system. It has opened foreign investment wider to sectors such as telecommunications, medical care and education. All restrictions on foreign investment in manufacturing have been lifted.
The people of China remain at the heart of future planning. China’s per-capita income is expected to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, and improvements in daily life continue apace. Programs to improve health care, housing availability, educational opportunities and support for the aging are expanding.
“China’s 15th Five-Year Plan could unlock the unlimited potential of the economy, as it defines what China has achieved over the past several years and provides a powerful perspective for the future,” the Germany-based think tank Schiller Institute said.
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