Home » Opinion » Chinese Views
Don't blame heavens for drought caused by rabid growth
By Wan Lixin |
April 8, 2010, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
WHEN we hear reports about "once-in-a-century" droughts and sandstorms, there are hints that we are being treated unjustly by the heavens.
This perception of wrong can prevent us from seeking and grasping the interconnections between seemingly discrete events.
When we are congratulated on our miraculous growth, most have in mind China's east coast.
That's no longer correct.
Lian Ji, dean of the Inner Mongolia University, didn't not think it necessary to be modest about the achievements of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
"Globally China is seeing the fastest growth. Within China the fastest growing region is Inner Mongolia, and within Inner Mongolia it is Ordos," Lian said last December at a seminar.
Ordos is a city in the southern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a region some people still associate with pastures.
Lian revealed Ordos' per capita GDP exceeds that for Hong Kong, and the "Ordos phenomenon" is drawing extensive attention from all sides. How could pasture fuel such explosive growth?
The region owed its rise 30 years ago to a brand of cashmere wear.
The thirst for cashmere ("soft gold") led to overgrazing, which degrades the grassland, and thus reduces the quality of the cashmere produced.
But the local economy has long diversified from cashmere into the more profitable "dark gold" - coal - that the region is richly, and ominously, endowed with.
But neither soft nor dark gold can even remotely compare with the real estate gold.
The pasture city is embarking on a massive urbanization drive.
For instance the Dongsheng District in Ordos vows to "eliminate" (xiaomie) the agricultural and pastoral population to hit the target of 100 percent urbanization by 2012.
Local government has built a new city from scratch 30 km away from the current Ordos at a cost of 5 billion yuan (US$735 million).
Yes, it is an empty, ghost city, but local policy makers know better: no Chinese has ever lost money in real estate.
Such aspirations are also running high elsewhere, not least in China's scorched southwest.
In Kunming, capital of Yunnan Province, Chenggong new town boasts gleaming administrative centers covered in marble tiles and rows on rows of high-rises.
Yes, it is empty, and very dry, but what is happening in the tourist island of Hainan confirms the wildest imaginings.
Drought-hit Chongqing has also just announced a staggering 1 trillion yuan investment package.
The city that owes its municipal status to the Three Gorges project will start building a 620-meter twin towers soon, adding something new to China's stock of superlatives.
Before Dubai was in trouble, another tourist haven in the east vowed to model its future on that city - and to my knowledge that city is not the only one mesmerized by Dubai's Burj Aj Arab Hotel.
Economists have been stunned by China's unprecedented monetary supply that has been euphemized as "moderately loose," and they need to be prepared for more surprises.
The government is likely to be very liberal in bank lendings this year.
To avoid a buildup of bad debts it simply has to continue to finance those projects already launched as part of the stimulus packages.
China's capacity to pull off this trick of growth impresses the outsiders, puzzles economists, and strikes fear into the hearts of some ordinary people.
As the rainy season in Yunnan approaches, the drought in the southwest will soon be forgotten. Then local government officials will abandon themselves to the race of growth again.
Many officials believe that decoupling from this game of growth is boring, and risky.
This perception of wrong can prevent us from seeking and grasping the interconnections between seemingly discrete events.
When we are congratulated on our miraculous growth, most have in mind China's east coast.
That's no longer correct.
Lian Ji, dean of the Inner Mongolia University, didn't not think it necessary to be modest about the achievements of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
"Globally China is seeing the fastest growth. Within China the fastest growing region is Inner Mongolia, and within Inner Mongolia it is Ordos," Lian said last December at a seminar.
Ordos is a city in the southern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a region some people still associate with pastures.
Lian revealed Ordos' per capita GDP exceeds that for Hong Kong, and the "Ordos phenomenon" is drawing extensive attention from all sides. How could pasture fuel such explosive growth?
The region owed its rise 30 years ago to a brand of cashmere wear.
The thirst for cashmere ("soft gold") led to overgrazing, which degrades the grassland, and thus reduces the quality of the cashmere produced.
But the local economy has long diversified from cashmere into the more profitable "dark gold" - coal - that the region is richly, and ominously, endowed with.
But neither soft nor dark gold can even remotely compare with the real estate gold.
The pasture city is embarking on a massive urbanization drive.
For instance the Dongsheng District in Ordos vows to "eliminate" (xiaomie) the agricultural and pastoral population to hit the target of 100 percent urbanization by 2012.
Local government has built a new city from scratch 30 km away from the current Ordos at a cost of 5 billion yuan (US$735 million).
Yes, it is an empty, ghost city, but local policy makers know better: no Chinese has ever lost money in real estate.
Such aspirations are also running high elsewhere, not least in China's scorched southwest.
In Kunming, capital of Yunnan Province, Chenggong new town boasts gleaming administrative centers covered in marble tiles and rows on rows of high-rises.
Yes, it is empty, and very dry, but what is happening in the tourist island of Hainan confirms the wildest imaginings.
Drought-hit Chongqing has also just announced a staggering 1 trillion yuan investment package.
The city that owes its municipal status to the Three Gorges project will start building a 620-meter twin towers soon, adding something new to China's stock of superlatives.
Before Dubai was in trouble, another tourist haven in the east vowed to model its future on that city - and to my knowledge that city is not the only one mesmerized by Dubai's Burj Aj Arab Hotel.
Economists have been stunned by China's unprecedented monetary supply that has been euphemized as "moderately loose," and they need to be prepared for more surprises.
The government is likely to be very liberal in bank lendings this year.
To avoid a buildup of bad debts it simply has to continue to finance those projects already launched as part of the stimulus packages.
China's capacity to pull off this trick of growth impresses the outsiders, puzzles economists, and strikes fear into the hearts of some ordinary people.
As the rainy season in Yunnan approaches, the drought in the southwest will soon be forgotten. Then local government officials will abandon themselves to the race of growth again.
Many officials believe that decoupling from this game of growth is boring, and risky.
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