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Rise of Japan's extreme nationalism worrisome
By Jean-Pierre Lehmann |
December 20, 2012, Thursday
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THE LDP, which won a resounding victory in the Japanese parliamentary elections on December 16, is back.
LDP stands for Liberal-Democratic-Party. The quip when I was living and working in Japan during the 1960s, 1970s and into the 1980s was that it was neither "liberal" nor "democratic," nor really a "party," but a loose coalition of rival factions bound together to keep the socialists out.
These were the decades when the Japanese economic miracle was transformed into the Japanese economic "menace" for some and the Japanese economic "model" for others. The former elicited what was known as "Japan-bashing," the latter gave birth to the huge "learn from Japan" industry that developed in business schools and consultancies.
There was no interest in Japanese politics which were seen as byzantine and boring. In any case, it was widely believed that it was not the politicians who really ran Japan, but the bureaucrats, the famed "Japan, Inc."
Then in the early 1990s the Japanese economy tanked and entered its "lost decades" from which it has not yet exited. As this coincided with the growth of China, interest in Japan evaporated; from "Japan-bashing" in the 1980s came "Japan-passing" in the 1990s.
The LDP, which basically held monopoly political power since the 1950s, was increasingly challenged and indeed had been out of office since 2009.
In December 2012, however, one can say that not only is the LDP back, but Japan is back, albeit in a very different guise from that of earlier decades.
Since the early 1990s the Japanese economy has been in stagnation. In the 1980s, when the Japanese economy seemed to be growing on anabolic steroids, the consensus was that it would overtake the US and become No. 1. In fact, not only did it not become No. 1, it lost its No. 2 position and now has been relegated to No. 3.
While Japan may be the "sick man" of the 21st century global economy, it should not be forgotten that it is a very, very rich sick man.
The idea that Japan does not matter would be false. It matters a lot.
What is noteworthy about Japan now, however, is the emergence of politics, and perhaps more significantly, geopolitics as crucial driving forces.
Atavistic imperialism
As Japan has become economically and socially depressed, politics have gained in stridency. The main political force has been the rise of extreme nationalism and what may be termed atavistic imperialism vis-a-vis its neighbors.
For a variety of reasons, which have mainly to do with realpolitik, Japan was basically exculpated from its war responsibilities and guilt.
By failing to prosecute the Emperor - in whose name the war had been fought and invasions carried out - the entire population of Japan was exonerated.
In contrast to Germany, therefore, where there has been a complete discontinuity before and after World War II, which allowed for the creation of the European Union, in Japan there has been a marked degree of continuity.
No internationalists
In the Japanese contemporary political landscape there are extreme nationalists, notably the former governor of Tokyo Ishihara Shintaro and the recently elected mayor of Osaka Hashimoto; and there are nationalists, but there are no internationalists.
Thus, while the future prime minister Abe Shinzo is extreme because, to cite one example, he denies that the Japanese army engaged in sexual slavery during the war - the evidence for which is beyond any reasonable dispute - and other politicians may stay silent on the subject, none is going to stand up and say, yes, there was sexual slavery and we should express remorse. Japan's amnesia is deeply offensive to its neighbors, especially China and Korea.
In the meantime, there are very dangerous territorial disputes between Japan and China and Korea.
China, Japan and Korea are respectively the world's second, third and eleventh largest economic powers. They are also major trading powers and all engaged actively in the global supply chain.
Many famous brand products, especially, but not exclusively, in telecommunications and electronics, are composed of vital inputs from firms in all three countries.
Global consequences
Indeed, business is alarmed at what is taking place and the impact it is having, but remains relatively impotent before the nationalist populist surge.
Should the situation badly deteriorate in East Asia, the consequences will of course be regional, but also global.
Even an unarmed conflict - say trade wars, following on from the skirmishes that have already been occurring - could have dramatic effects, far more so than the US fiscal cliff or the Eurozone kafuffle.
Global business leaders must integrate these dimensions in their perspectives and strategies in respect to the region. They must also ask what they might do as a means of contributing to a more "pacific" business environment.
Jean-Pierre Lehmann is emeritus professor of International Political Economy at IMD business school. Shanghai Daily condensed the article.
LDP stands for Liberal-Democratic-Party. The quip when I was living and working in Japan during the 1960s, 1970s and into the 1980s was that it was neither "liberal" nor "democratic," nor really a "party," but a loose coalition of rival factions bound together to keep the socialists out.
These were the decades when the Japanese economic miracle was transformed into the Japanese economic "menace" for some and the Japanese economic "model" for others. The former elicited what was known as "Japan-bashing," the latter gave birth to the huge "learn from Japan" industry that developed in business schools and consultancies.
There was no interest in Japanese politics which were seen as byzantine and boring. In any case, it was widely believed that it was not the politicians who really ran Japan, but the bureaucrats, the famed "Japan, Inc."
Then in the early 1990s the Japanese economy tanked and entered its "lost decades" from which it has not yet exited. As this coincided with the growth of China, interest in Japan evaporated; from "Japan-bashing" in the 1980s came "Japan-passing" in the 1990s.
The LDP, which basically held monopoly political power since the 1950s, was increasingly challenged and indeed had been out of office since 2009.
In December 2012, however, one can say that not only is the LDP back, but Japan is back, albeit in a very different guise from that of earlier decades.
Since the early 1990s the Japanese economy has been in stagnation. In the 1980s, when the Japanese economy seemed to be growing on anabolic steroids, the consensus was that it would overtake the US and become No. 1. In fact, not only did it not become No. 1, it lost its No. 2 position and now has been relegated to No. 3.
While Japan may be the "sick man" of the 21st century global economy, it should not be forgotten that it is a very, very rich sick man.
The idea that Japan does not matter would be false. It matters a lot.
What is noteworthy about Japan now, however, is the emergence of politics, and perhaps more significantly, geopolitics as crucial driving forces.
Atavistic imperialism
As Japan has become economically and socially depressed, politics have gained in stridency. The main political force has been the rise of extreme nationalism and what may be termed atavistic imperialism vis-a-vis its neighbors.
For a variety of reasons, which have mainly to do with realpolitik, Japan was basically exculpated from its war responsibilities and guilt.
By failing to prosecute the Emperor - in whose name the war had been fought and invasions carried out - the entire population of Japan was exonerated.
In contrast to Germany, therefore, where there has been a complete discontinuity before and after World War II, which allowed for the creation of the European Union, in Japan there has been a marked degree of continuity.
No internationalists
In the Japanese contemporary political landscape there are extreme nationalists, notably the former governor of Tokyo Ishihara Shintaro and the recently elected mayor of Osaka Hashimoto; and there are nationalists, but there are no internationalists.
Thus, while the future prime minister Abe Shinzo is extreme because, to cite one example, he denies that the Japanese army engaged in sexual slavery during the war - the evidence for which is beyond any reasonable dispute - and other politicians may stay silent on the subject, none is going to stand up and say, yes, there was sexual slavery and we should express remorse. Japan's amnesia is deeply offensive to its neighbors, especially China and Korea.
In the meantime, there are very dangerous territorial disputes between Japan and China and Korea.
China, Japan and Korea are respectively the world's second, third and eleventh largest economic powers. They are also major trading powers and all engaged actively in the global supply chain.
Many famous brand products, especially, but not exclusively, in telecommunications and electronics, are composed of vital inputs from firms in all three countries.
Global consequences
Indeed, business is alarmed at what is taking place and the impact it is having, but remains relatively impotent before the nationalist populist surge.
Should the situation badly deteriorate in East Asia, the consequences will of course be regional, but also global.
Even an unarmed conflict - say trade wars, following on from the skirmishes that have already been occurring - could have dramatic effects, far more so than the US fiscal cliff or the Eurozone kafuffle.
Global business leaders must integrate these dimensions in their perspectives and strategies in respect to the region. They must also ask what they might do as a means of contributing to a more "pacific" business environment.
Jean-Pierre Lehmann is emeritus professor of International Political Economy at IMD business school. Shanghai Daily condensed the article.
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