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Trade, not barriers, keeps economies primed for stimulus recovery
By Michael Czinkota and Maureen Smith |
February 5, 2009, Thursday
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US President Barack Obama is defining his economic stimulus plan.
Nations around the world attempt to stabilize their economies as well. Typically, each nation's emphasis rests with domestic issues.
Though politically understandable (GM is more important to the US than Toyota), a successful plan must reflect the powerful influence of international trade on the national economy.
In the US, for example, trade-related activities comprise more than 25 percent of its economic activities - which is more than the housing and banking sectors combined.
Trade also accounted for the entire US economic growth in the past year. Trade issues definitely qualify for top priority, but seem to be neglected so far.
The world depends on continuity in trade. The global economic outlook, competition and consumer choice are shaped by trade flows and currency values.
Competitive devaluations, for example, provide unfair advantages to exporters.
For many nations, the promotion of exports must have a central place in their economic recovery package.
Great Depression
In the US, the national debate about economic recovery includes many lessons from the Great Depression.
The clearest of these is to avoid the protectionism of the Smoot Hawley tariffs that turned a market crash in the US into a global Great Depression.
Some global leaders give lip service to this conventional wisdom.
The Doha Round of international trade negotiations continues to be stalled - even though eight years of negotiations have placed great benefits within reach.
The US experiences some difficulties in its global position, but around the world there is hope, expectation and willingness for a re-emergence of US leadership.
There is growing concern among US trading partners that the new Congress and administration might introduce a new era of US protectionism.
Global markets are parsing any announcement for signs of what the Obama Administration will mean for them.
The world economies are intertwined. Any stimulus measure of one nation is likely to rapidly affect others and trigger responses.
A good domestic stimulus should not become an international distortion.
Subsidies paid to farmers in one country, for example, can affect dairy related industries around the world.
Once introduced, protectionism can quickly become contagious and be emulated around the world.
Discussions of US economic improvements must include a focus on global recovery. Countries must be able and willing to buy each other's goods - in an increasing quantity - if world economies are to blossom.
Suggestions
Here are some recommendations:
1. Countries need to make unambiguous, consistent and clear statements that industry bailout packages will not include protectionist measures.
2. We need a renewed commitment to the World Trade Organization and its stalled Doha Round of trade negotiations.
The key players in world trade need to re-energize the negotiations by making major commitments and taking "early harvest" of potential agreements on a plurilateral basis.
One first step could be the elimination of tariffs on environmental goods and services.
3. The US must lead its economic partners on the basis of trust and fair play, applied to trade and investment rules as well as to currency values.
We're in this together. The sound implementation of policy objectives - be they health care, education, retirement - requires a sound economy that depends on global collaboration on trade.
Trade success can provide the momentum that keeps economies from stalling out before the stimulus can kick in. Trade issues must move up to the front burner.
(Michael Czinkota is a professor of international business and marketing at Georgetown University and the University of Birmingham (UK). Maureen Smith is senior vice president at Jefferson Waterman International. The views expressed are their own.)
Nations around the world attempt to stabilize their economies as well. Typically, each nation's emphasis rests with domestic issues.
Though politically understandable (GM is more important to the US than Toyota), a successful plan must reflect the powerful influence of international trade on the national economy.
In the US, for example, trade-related activities comprise more than 25 percent of its economic activities - which is more than the housing and banking sectors combined.
Trade also accounted for the entire US economic growth in the past year. Trade issues definitely qualify for top priority, but seem to be neglected so far.
The world depends on continuity in trade. The global economic outlook, competition and consumer choice are shaped by trade flows and currency values.
Competitive devaluations, for example, provide unfair advantages to exporters.
For many nations, the promotion of exports must have a central place in their economic recovery package.
Great Depression
In the US, the national debate about economic recovery includes many lessons from the Great Depression.
The clearest of these is to avoid the protectionism of the Smoot Hawley tariffs that turned a market crash in the US into a global Great Depression.
Some global leaders give lip service to this conventional wisdom.
The Doha Round of international trade negotiations continues to be stalled - even though eight years of negotiations have placed great benefits within reach.
The US experiences some difficulties in its global position, but around the world there is hope, expectation and willingness for a re-emergence of US leadership.
There is growing concern among US trading partners that the new Congress and administration might introduce a new era of US protectionism.
Global markets are parsing any announcement for signs of what the Obama Administration will mean for them.
The world economies are intertwined. Any stimulus measure of one nation is likely to rapidly affect others and trigger responses.
A good domestic stimulus should not become an international distortion.
Subsidies paid to farmers in one country, for example, can affect dairy related industries around the world.
Once introduced, protectionism can quickly become contagious and be emulated around the world.
Discussions of US economic improvements must include a focus on global recovery. Countries must be able and willing to buy each other's goods - in an increasing quantity - if world economies are to blossom.
Suggestions
Here are some recommendations:
1. Countries need to make unambiguous, consistent and clear statements that industry bailout packages will not include protectionist measures.
2. We need a renewed commitment to the World Trade Organization and its stalled Doha Round of trade negotiations.
The key players in world trade need to re-energize the negotiations by making major commitments and taking "early harvest" of potential agreements on a plurilateral basis.
One first step could be the elimination of tariffs on environmental goods and services.
3. The US must lead its economic partners on the basis of trust and fair play, applied to trade and investment rules as well as to currency values.
We're in this together. The sound implementation of policy objectives - be they health care, education, retirement - requires a sound economy that depends on global collaboration on trade.
Trade success can provide the momentum that keeps economies from stalling out before the stimulus can kick in. Trade issues must move up to the front burner.
(Michael Czinkota is a professor of international business and marketing at Georgetown University and the University of Birmingham (UK). Maureen Smith is senior vice president at Jefferson Waterman International. The views expressed are their own.)
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