Bigger threat scene to Greenland's ice
Source: Agencies |
March 13, 2012, Tuesday
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THE complete melt of Greenland's ice sheet could occur at lower global temperatures than previously thought, according to a study published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change, increasing the threat of a rise in sea level.
Substantial melting of land ice could contribute to long-term sea level rise of several meters, threatening the lives of millions of people.
"Our study shows that a temperature threshold for melting the (ice sheet) exists and that this threshold has been overestimated until now," said scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, who used computer simulations of the ice sheet's evolution to predict its future behavior.
A complete ice sheet melt could happen if global temperatures rose between 0.8 and 3.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a best estimate of 1.6 degrees, the scientists said. Previous research suggested the ice sheet could melt with a best estimate of a 3.1-degree rise.
One-twentieth of the world's ice is in Greenland. If it all melted it would be equivalent to a 6.4-meter sea level rise, previous research has shown.
"If the global temperature significantly overshoots the threshold for a long time, the ice will continue melting and not regrow - even if the climate would, after many thousands of years, return to its pre-industrial state," said team leader Andrey Ganopolski at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Today, global warming of 0.8 degrees has already been recorded.
If the world takes no action to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth could warm by as much as 8 degrees Celsius, scientists have projected in previous studies.
If temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, a complete melt of Greenland's ice sheet could take 50,000 years, the study found.
Substantial melting of land ice could contribute to long-term sea level rise of several meters, threatening the lives of millions of people.
"Our study shows that a temperature threshold for melting the (ice sheet) exists and that this threshold has been overestimated until now," said scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, who used computer simulations of the ice sheet's evolution to predict its future behavior.
A complete ice sheet melt could happen if global temperatures rose between 0.8 and 3.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a best estimate of 1.6 degrees, the scientists said. Previous research suggested the ice sheet could melt with a best estimate of a 3.1-degree rise.
One-twentieth of the world's ice is in Greenland. If it all melted it would be equivalent to a 6.4-meter sea level rise, previous research has shown.
"If the global temperature significantly overshoots the threshold for a long time, the ice will continue melting and not regrow - even if the climate would, after many thousands of years, return to its pre-industrial state," said team leader Andrey Ganopolski at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Today, global warming of 0.8 degrees has already been recorded.
If the world takes no action to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth could warm by as much as 8 degrees Celsius, scientists have projected in previous studies.
If temperature rise is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, a complete melt of Greenland's ice sheet could take 50,000 years, the study found.
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