Himalaya glacier warning alarmist, not based in fact
Source: Agencies |
January 21, 2010, Thursday
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A UNITED Nations warning that Himalayan glaciers may melt by 2035 appears not to be backed up by scientific evidence, an American scientist says - an admission that could energize climate change critics.
In a 2007 report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the Himalayan glaciers are likely to disappear within three decades if the present melting rate continues. But a key member of the panel now says the source for that claim is unclear.
The statement, made within the group's voluminous, Nobel-winning report, was little noticed until The Sunday Times said the projection seemed to be based on a news report.
"The origin of that material has not been traced through to its source with a high level of confidence," said Chris Field, a co-chair of an IPCC working group. "Based on the evidence we've seen, the estimated data comes from reports that are more like news reports rather than from a primary scientific literature."
The leaders of the panel are investigating how the forecast got into the report, Field said.
"There are people in various blog postings and in the media who have pointed out that the text on which that conclusion is based is not a primary scientific source," Field said. "That appears to be correct as far as we can ascertain."
India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh on Tuesday repeated his previous criticism of the panel's assessment of the Himalayan glaciers.
"The health of the glaciers is a cause of grave concern, but the IPCC's alarmist position that they would melt by 2035 was not based on an iota of scientific evidence," Ramesh was quoted as saying.
The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 said the Himalayan glaciers were receding faster than any other place in the world. "The likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate," it said.
But, in a confusing note, the report added the glacier's total area "will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 square kilometers by the year 2035."
Field said the Himalayan claim was only part of a massive scientific effort to gauge the warming of the planet.
In a 2007 report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the Himalayan glaciers are likely to disappear within three decades if the present melting rate continues. But a key member of the panel now says the source for that claim is unclear.
The statement, made within the group's voluminous, Nobel-winning report, was little noticed until The Sunday Times said the projection seemed to be based on a news report.
"The origin of that material has not been traced through to its source with a high level of confidence," said Chris Field, a co-chair of an IPCC working group. "Based on the evidence we've seen, the estimated data comes from reports that are more like news reports rather than from a primary scientific literature."
The leaders of the panel are investigating how the forecast got into the report, Field said.
"There are people in various blog postings and in the media who have pointed out that the text on which that conclusion is based is not a primary scientific source," Field said. "That appears to be correct as far as we can ascertain."
India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh on Tuesday repeated his previous criticism of the panel's assessment of the Himalayan glaciers.
"The health of the glaciers is a cause of grave concern, but the IPCC's alarmist position that they would melt by 2035 was not based on an iota of scientific evidence," Ramesh was quoted as saying.
The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 said the Himalayan glaciers were receding faster than any other place in the world. "The likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate," it said.
But, in a confusing note, the report added the glacier's total area "will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 square kilometers by the year 2035."
Field said the Himalayan claim was only part of a massive scientific effort to gauge the warming of the planet.
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