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Online betting markets predicting Clinton victory
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HILLARY Clinton’s probability of winning the White House gained in online betting markets following the first debate of the campaign.
A Clinton contract on the popular PredictIt betting market gained 6 US cents from the previous day’s level to 69 US cents, while a contract favoring Donald Trump’s prospects for victory tumbled 7 US cents to 31 US cents. Contracts are priced from 0 US cents to 100 US cents, with the contract price equating to a probability of whether that candidate will win the November 8 election.
The price swings for both candidates were the largest since early August and placed Clinton’s lead at the widest in about two weeks.
Clinton’s prospects also improved on the Irish betting site Paddy Power.
About halfway through Monday’s debate, she was shown as a 1-to-2 favorite, and those odds shortened to 4-to-9 in the moments after it ended. Trump’s odds lengthened to 23-to-10 from 9-to-4.
The swing put the brakes on a big Trump price rally on PredictIt that coincided with a tightening in most opinion polls. The implied probability of him winning had risen to 38 US cents on Sunday from just 28 US cents at the end of August.
Bets on Trump fell as low as 5 US cents on February but went up as high as 44 US cents in May. Bets on Clinton, the persistent favorite in most wagering markets, went as low as 37 US cents in January and as high as 79 US cents in August.
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