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November 2, 2015

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Turkey’s AKP set for return to govern alone

Turkey’s AK Party appeared to be closing in on its goal of recovering a single-party majority and governing alone, partial general election results showed yesterday, in what would be a major turnaround for embattled President Tayyip Erdogan.

The vote was Turkey’s second in five months, after the AKP in June lost the overall majority it had enjoyed since 2002. Erdogan had presented it as a chance to restore stability at a time of tension over Kurdish insurrection and two bombings while critics fear a drift to authoritarianism under the president.

With around two thirds of the votes counted, the AKP was on 52 percent, according to state-run broadcaster TRT, higher than many party officials had expected. The main opposition CHP was at 22.5 percent.

Two senior AKP officials told Reuters they expected to be able to form a single-party government again, with one of them forecasting a final share of around 45-46 percent of the vote.

“If this trend continues, it is likely that we will have a single-party government,” the second official said.

Since June, a ceasefire with Kurdish militants has collapsed, the war in neighboring Syria has worsened and Turkey — a NATO member — has been buffeted by two Islamic State-linked suicide bomb attacks that killed more than 130 people.

Investors and Western allies hope the vote will help restore stability as well as confidence in an US$800 billion economy, allowing Ankara to play a more effective role in stemming a flood of refugees from neighboring wars via Turkey into Europe and helping in the battle against Islamic State militants.

TRT’s partial results said the nationalist MHP opposition stood at 11.4 percent, with support for the pro-Kurdish HDP dropping to 10.5 percent, perilously close to the 10 percent margin needed to enter parliament.

The results could still change significantly, with counting not yet completed in the country’s largest cities.

This time, there were few of the flags, posters and campaign buses that thronged the streets in the build-up to June’s vote. But Erdogan framed this sombre re-run as a pivotal opportunity for Turkey to return to single-party AKP rule after months of political uncertainty.

“It is obvious in today’s election how beneficial stability is for our nation and today our citizens will make their choice based on this,” Erdogan said after voting in his home district of Camlica on the Asian side of Istanbul.

The election was prompted by the AKP’s inability to find a junior coalition partner after the June outcome. Erdogan’s critics said it represented a gamble by the combative leader to win back enough support so the party can eventually change the constitution and give him greater presidential powers.

If the partial results are confirmed, it is a gamble that appears to have paid off. The AKP had fought on a pledge to end the uncertainty caused by the inconclusive June vote.

“Turkey lost considerable ground in economy, politics and terror during this period, and gains were lost. Voters appeared to want to bring back stability once again,” a third AKP official said.

The results could aggravate deep splits in Turkey — between pious conservatives who champion Erdogan as a hero of the working class, and Western-facing secularists suspicious of his authoritarianism and Islamist ideals.




 

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