After Brexit: Roadmap for a leap in the dark

Dawn, Friday. The votes are in. The British have spoken in their EU membership referendum and they want out.

It is a scenario European leaders planned for in earnest while praying it would not happen.

According to official and diplomats, secret meetings in Brussels and across Europe revealed huge uncertainty over what would follow a vote British Prime Minister David Cameron called a "leap in the dark".

This is a rough roadmap of what happens to Europe now based on those conversations.

Day 1: All eyes on the markets

Before the vote, Mr Cameron said he would notify the European Union "immediately" if Britain was leaving.

But he may take some time. He will now be under huge pressure from his divided Conservative party to resign.

Photo: Jean-Claude Juncker will chair an emergency meeting of 28 EU commissioners. (AFP: Suzanne Plunkett)

Money markets will continue to be volatile. The Bank of England and European Central Bank have contingency plans to deal with a "Brexit shock" to the sterling and the euro.

We have already seen the pound dive to levels not seen in 30 years.

EU officials are expected to meet

It is expected, leaders of the main parties in the European Parliament will meet in Brussels, followed by a broader meeting of all party chiefs with the speaker.

The head of the EU's governing body, the European Council, Donald Tusk may deliver a statement. He would have spoken to all the leaders in the days before the vote. He is also set to chair an EU summit next week.

It is expected that there will be a meeting of European officials in Brussels on Saturday. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose government holds the rotating EU presidency, will be there and will deliver a message.

EU affairs ministers and ambassadors from member states are then expected to gather in Luxembourg for routine talks that will provide the first chance for many to react.

Day 2: Foreign ministers will gather

Foreign ministers from the six founders of the bloc — Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg — plan to meet in Berlin, the Belgian minister says.

Some eurozone finance ministers have suggested their euro group might hold an emergency meeting but senior officials say that's unlikely.

Managing banking and market turbulence will be up to the European Central Bank and other regulators.

Day 3: Lawyers are waiting but remember, there is no 'plan b'

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker will chair an emergency meeting of the executive's "college" of 28 commissioners, including Britain's Jonathan Hill, officials say.

The Commission will be responsible for negotiating the divorce.

Before the vote, EU officials insisted there was no "plan B".

But, while remembering the same denials during last summer's near departure of debt-laden Greece, one official spoke of a "room b", where a firefighting team of EU lawyers and experts would be ready

Day 4: Investors and voters will want assurances

The start of a new week on global financial markets will see investors and voters demanding answers on where Britain and the EU are headed.

Expect both to offer assurances of orderly talks, while nothing changes immediately, for businesses or citizens.

Day 5: David Cameron expected at EU summit

Mr Cameron's political career may be over but it is likely he will stay on until his deeply divided party elects a successor. That means, he would be expected to appear for dinner in Brussels at the EU summit chaired by Mr Tusk.

The big question is: will he notify Mr Tusk he is triggering Article 50 of the EU treaty, the legal basis for Britain to leave?

EU officials and diplomats say they would want Britain to launch the process right away and rule out any new negotiations, though for now they see no legal way to force London's hand.

The EU treaty does not allow for expulsion but there would be fierce political pressure urging London to respect voters' wish to leave, and the other 27 states could start discussions without Britain.

Photo: David Cameron will be excluded from some EU talks. (Reuters: Stefan Wermuth)

Day 6: David Cameron will be excluded from some EU talks

Wednesday will mark day two of the EU summit and it is expected leaders of the 27 other states will confer without Mr Cameron in the room — a pattern Britons will have to get used to.

Article 50 sets a two-year limit on divorce talks.

The EU must fill a Britain-sized hole in its budget and reassure millions of citizens living in Britain and Britons on the continent of their future rights.

EU leaders must give the executive Commission a negotiating mandate. Some in Britain see exit discussions lasting longer than two years to include talks on new trade terms. But an extension requires an EU unanimity that few in Brussels expect.

Some suggest talks with Britain on its future trade terms can run in parallel. Mr Juncker said the EU's priority would be a two-year divorce, then talks starting "with a blank slate".

From then on, it all gets very technical

All EU laws apply in Britain until two years after London starts the process to leave. Then none would apply.

Meanwhile, British politicians sit in the EU parliament, Jonathan Hill sits in the Commission as the UK's representative, thousands of Britons go on working as EU civil servants and British ministers sit in EU councils.

But they will have no real voice and Britain will be expected to renounce its EU presidency due in the second half of 2017. Estonia might come forward to start its first stint in the chair six months early.

A host of other EU plans, shelved for fear of alienating British voters, will come out of cold storage, including:

• Energy saving rules to limit the power of toasters and kettles
• Dealing with the fallout from a Swiss referendum on EU migration
• A Dutch rejection of the EU trade deal with Ukraine will get back on track as will a review of the EU's seven-year budget, which covers a period out to 2020

A post-Brexit relationship between Britain and the EU is the great unknown.

Many EU leaders are determined Britain cannot have access to EU trade and financial markets if it wants to keep out EU workers and refuse to contribute to the EU budget.

"Out means out," they said.

Photo: It is unknown how German chancellor Angela Merkel will deal with the UK going forward. (AFP: John MacDougall)

End of the road?

Leaders have much else on their plates to distract them from negotiating with Britain, including Russia, the euro, jobs and asylum seekers.

London may have other priorities, too, not least the likelihood Scotland would again bid to break away.

There is a "Brussels consensus" that Britain would face a chilly future, cast out to perhaps talk its way back later into some kind of trade access in return for concessions such as free migration from inside the bloc and contributions to the EU budget — things which Brexit voters want to end.

But cautious diplomats do not rule out surprise turns.

Reuters