Category: Federal Election / Alp / Federal Elections / Government and Politics / Business, Economics and Finance / Budget

Labor indicates plan to allow budget to worsen over short term

Wednesday, 8 Jun 2016 04:58:35 | Caitlyn Gribbin And Dan Conifer

Federal Labor is giving its strongest indication yet it would allow the budget to worsen over the short term, if elected.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen will today launch what the party calls its 10-year economic plan.

They will argue "fiscal repair should be achieved over the medium term and back-loaded so as to not hurt our economy", in what the Coalition will argue is a concession that Labor's policies will make the deficit worse over the four-year forward estimates.

The policy agenda will point to an improvement to the budget bottom line over a decade, so the economy is not hurt in the short term.

"Labor believes in returning the budget to balance in a way which supports economic growth over the next four years," it says.

"That's why our budget savings like negative gearing build over time and deliver a substantial fiscal dividend over the medium term."

The document focuses on Labor education, NBN and renewable energy policies.

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Negative gearing


Negative gearing allows property investors who make a loss on running their property to reduce the tax they pay on other income.
The Coalition parties have promised not to change the current negative gearing laws, which apply to established and new houses or apartments.
Labor wants to abolish negative gearing for established houses from next year, which it claims will make housing more affordable.
The Coalition has criticised Labor's plan, saying it would discourage investment, raise rents and reduce home values.
But Labor says its plan would help put first home buyers on a level playing field with investors.
Australia has more than two million property investors, and more than 60 per cent made a loss in the 2013-14 financial year.
The average loss is about $10,000.
If someone earned a wage of $80,000, for example, negative gearing would cut their taxable income to $70,000.

Marginal seats


A seat is described as "marginal" when the winning candidate from the last election won the seat by less than 6 per cent.
That means the candidate received less than 56 per cent of the two candidate preferred vote.
If a candidate wins 56-60 per cent, the seat is classified as "fairly safe", and over 60 per cent is considered "safe".
For a seat to change hands, a swing of anything more than an absolute majority (50 per cent + 1 vote) is required.
For example, if a member holds a seat with 56 per cent of the vote, a swing greater than 6 per cent is required for the seat to change hands.

Superannuation


Superannuation concessions are tax breaks designed to encourage people to put more money into superannuation, in theory saving the government money down the track by reducing the burden these people will place on the public purse when they retire.
Currently, superannuation is taxed at 15 per cent, with super earnings not taxed at all once you hit 60 years of age. Employers are required to put a minimum of 9.5 per cent of an employee's income into a super fund.
The superannuation concession allows people to voluntarily contribute more to their superannuation and still be taxed at the rate of 15 per cent (or 30 per cent if you are really well off), well below the majority of tax rates.
In the budget, the Government announced a lowering of the income threshold at which the 30 per cent (rather than 15 per cent) tax rate kicks in on superannuation contributions from $300,000 to $250,000, which matches one of Labor's policy commitments.
They also announced the lowering of the annual cap on contributions entitled to the concessional tax rates to $25,000, from the current $30,000 for under-50s and $35,000 for those aged 50-plus.
The two moves combined are expected to save a further $2.5 billion over three years.
Labor has promised it would raise $14 billion in a decade by putting a 15 per cent tax on super earnings more than $75,000 a year.
The concessions have been criticised for disproportionately benefiting the wealthy, who get a much bigger discount on their normal income tax rates than those in lower tax brackets.
With many wealthy people likely to be ineligible for the pension on reaching retirement anyway, critics argue that the concessions cost the government far more in lost revenue than it would cost to support wealthy individuals with the aged pension.
Superannuation concessions cost the federal budget $30 billion in 2015–16.

Gonski


The Gonski needs-based funding model was implemented under former prime minister Julia Gillard in 2014 following the independent Gonski review.
Under the model every student receives a base amount of funding with extra allocated for students with special needs or from disadvantaged backgrounds.
The Government has not matched the funding levels required by Gonski but has agreed to pump an extra $1.2 billion into schools, giving the states funding certainty until 2020.
The pledge partially reverses the 10-year, $30 billion cut to education funding contained in the Abbott government's 2014 budget.
Labor has promised to fully fund the last two years of Gonski at a cost of $4.5 billion.
The announcement was unveiled as part of a decade-long education plan from Labor worth $37.3 billion.

Backpacker tax


Currently, backpackers who come to Australia for work do not pay any tax until they earn more than $18,200.
In the 2015 budget, there was a proposal to tax backpackers on every dollar they earn from July 1, 2016.
By imposing this 32.5 per cent tax, the Government would earn $540 million over three years.
The Government has now delayed the introduction of the tax by six months until a government review on working holiday visas is complete.
That has angered farm groups, who argue they will be in the middle of harvest when any new taxes take effect.
Bill Shorten says it is cynical of the Government to delay the matter until after the election but Labor has not committed to scrapping the tax either.
The Greens want it dumped altogether.
Politicians and the farm sector agree that backpackers should pay some level of tax, but there is widespread concern that the proposed rate is too high.
The agriculture and tourism sectors say backpackers would bypass Australia and choose countries like New Zealand or Canada if the tax was implemented.
Backpackers make up 25 per cent of Australia's agriculture workforce.
In the Northern Territory, they make up 85 per cent.

Penalty rates


This election campaign is being fought under the shadow of a looming decision from the Fair Work Commission (FWC) which is deciding whether to cut Sunday penalty rates to the same level as Saturday rates.
If cut, around two million people who work in the retail and hospitality industries would be affected.
The Coalition has vowed to adhere to any ruling by the FWC that cuts Sunday penalty rates.
Labor does not want penalty rates cut but has ruled out passing legislation which would guarantee Sunday penalty rates if they win the election.
But if elected, Mr Shorten said a Labor government will make another submission to the commission arguing against the cuts.
The Australian Council of Trade Unions and the Greens want Labor to protect the Sunday penalties.
The FWC will hand down their decision after the July 2 election.

Preference deals


Australia has a preferential voting system, which means if you vote for a candidate who does not get elected your vote can go to the next preferred party.
Under new Senate voting laws passed in March, voters can number 1 to 6 on ballot papers above the line in order of their preference, or number individual candidates below the line.
The legislation's aim is to stop the complex preference-swapping deals that led to a number of senators being elected with only a fraction of the popular vote.
That is because instead of just voting for a preferred party above the line, often without knowing where their preferences have been directed, voters will now have to specify their choices.
The Liberal Party has not ruled out preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor in marginal Victorian seats.
If the July 2 election delivers another hung parliament, the Greens say they would prefer a Labor-Greens deal.
But both the Coalition and Labor have ruled out forming a governing Coalition with the Greens, raising the prospect of a second election if the first delivers a hung parliament.

Refoulement


Refoulement means the expulsion of persons who have the right to be recognised as refugees.
The United Nations Convention relating to the status of refugees outlines countries should not return a refugee to the place from which they fled because of their race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.
This is regarded as the principle of non-refoulement.

Asylum seekers


The terms refugee and asylum seeker are often confused and wrongly used in place of the other.
An asylum seeker is someone who is seeking international protection, but has not yet had their claim for refugee status determined.
A refugee is someone who has been found to be requiring protection.
The UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees defines it as "... owing to well‐founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it."

MYEFO


The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook is an update of the budget position around six months after the last budget was delivered.  
 

PEFO


The purpose of the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook is to provide an update on the budget position in the lead up to the election, taking into account as many of the government decisions made before the election writs were issued.
It also outlines other factors which may be contributing to the economic situation the country finds itself in during the election period.

Medicare rebate freeze


In this year's budget, the Coalition announced it would continue the indexation freeze for all Medicare Benefit Schedule (MBS) fees until 2020.
While not a direct cut to GPs' income, over time GPs would earn relatively less while their costs would increase.
The freeze on rebates was initially put in place for four years in 2014 after the unpopular $7.00 GP co-payment was dropped.
The Opposition has criticised the rebate freeze, calling it a GP tax by stealth.
In the second week of the campaign, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten announced Labor's plans to restore indexation of the MBS from January 1, 2017.
Labor said it would cost $2.4 billion by 2019-20 and $12.2 billion over a decade.

Concessional loans


Concessional loans are provided on terms substantially more generous than market loans.
Below-interest rates or grace periods are often features of concessional loans.
During week three of the election campaign, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce announced a $555-million package in concessional loans for dairy farmers affected by recent milk price cuts.
In 2014, the Coalition announced a drought concessional loan scheme which provides up to $150 million to drought-affected farm businesses.
Many farmers seeking drought loans have slammed the scheme for delayed access to funds and poor management.

Company tax cuts


The Coalition is proposing to cut the company tax rate to 25 per cent for all firms in the next 10 years.
The changes will be phased in over time, with an incremental increase in the number of firms paying the small business tax rate.
Eventually all firms, regardless of size, would pay 27.5 per cent, before the rate falls to 25 per cent from 2026-27.
The Federal Treasury predicts the measures would cost the budget more than $48 billion over a decade, while the Parliamentary Budget Office has estimated more than $51 billion.
The main argument for the proposal is that it would attract more foreign investment, producing a bigger and more productive economy.
Risks of the proposal include companies not increasing investment or taking a large profit instead of increasing employment or wages.
Labor is opposed to the proposal, saying Australia cannot afford the cuts, despite the Gillard government arguing for a cut five years ago.

Jobs and growth


The phrase "jobs and growth" has been widely recognised as the Coalition's catch-cry this election through the party's consistent repetition of the three-word slogan when selling their policies.
The mantra has been used to focus attention on the Coalition's plans to strengthen the economy including; corporate tax cuts, the innovation and science agenda and the Youth Employment Package.
Earlier this year, the Coalition rolled out the slogan "continuity and change" to try and graft their innovation policy to their traditional credentials in the economy.
However, the phrase was quickly killed off after the discovery that it was also a satirical line from the American sitcom, Veep.
In 2013, the Coalition chose the slogan "Choose Real Change. A Stronger Australia. A Better Future" to take to the election.

Double dissolution election


A double dissolution election allows federal governments to resolve a legislative deadlock in Parliament.
If the House of Representatives passes a bill twice and the Senate fails to pass that bill twice, the Prime Minister may approach the Governor-General to seek the dissolution of Parliament.
If the Governor-General dissolves both houses, this creates a simultaneous election for all members of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The big difference between double dissolutions and normal elections is that more politicians need to be elected.
Normally, half of the Senators are up for re-election (because they have six-year terms, and elections normally happen every three years).
In this year's double dissolution election, all Senate seats are up for grabs.
The public service goes into caretaker mode once Parliament is officially dissolved, which happened on May 9.
Between the dissolution and the election the Prime Minister cannot make any major decisions without consulting the Opposition.
This double dissolution election was triggered by the Senate blocking two parcels of legislation: the ABCC bills and the Registered Organisations Bill.

ABCC


The Australian Building and Construction Commission was set up the Howard government in 2005 as an independent watchdog to monitor the construction industry.
It came into being after the Royal Commission into the Building and Construction Industry, commonly known as the Cole royal commission.
In 2012, Labor prime minister Julia Gillard replaced the ABCC with a new regulator — the Fair Work Building and Construction Commission — which provided greater safeguards for workers.
In 2014, the Abbott government introduced a bill to the Senate to bring back the ABCC.
However, the bill has been blocked twice by the Senate which eventually led to Malcolm Turnbull asking the Governor-General to issue writs for a double dissolution election.
One of the Coalition's election promises is to restore the ABCC, arguing it would crack down on lawlessness in the building industry.
Labor and unions are staunchly opposed to the ABCC, saying its coercive powers give construction workers fewer rights than accused criminals.



 

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