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Home » Opinion » Book review
Looking for the next big thing in China
By Glenn Tam |
February 21, 2009, Saturday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
LAST year, many China books focused on the 30-year anniversary of the reform and opening-up policy, but "Supertrends of Future China," by Shanghai-based businessmen James Yuann and Jason Inch, looks ahead to China's next 10 years.
"Supertrends of Future China" is a refreshing departure from recent doom and gloom books about China and the global economy.
During this period of global economic uncertainty, an optimistic book about business in China may seem a bit irrelevant, but the opening chapters list danger-spots for China's economy, including environmental and energy challenges.
That said, the large part of the book looks positively on the long-term prognosis and identifies the factors to support the thesis, namely that China's economy has changed and there are new opportunities as a result of current social, economic, demographic and technological forces.
The 10 trends include familiar ones such as rapid urbanization and transformation of the urban economy towards the service industry, while other trends are macroeconomic, such as the national move towards high-tech and innovative industries that keep more added-value at home.
Accordingly, there are business opportunities in diverse areas, from branding and retail shopping to capital-intensive research and development. Not all the trends are so obvious, however.
One of the book's most interesting trends, the adoption and use of technology, shows how China's population is starting to take advantage of the low-cost electronics it produces for the world.
For example, with more mobile phones and more high-speed Internet connections than even the United States, China already leads the world in market size, yet on a per-capita basis there is still huge growth potential.
It is this combination of large market and high growth potential that attracts business people.
The authors note that China's Internet of the future will not be via PCs, but will be through mobile phones, creating new chances for Internet entrepreneurs.
Other trends require some explaining. For example, the authors coin a new term, "affluencing," to describe how China's significant foreign reserves, strong banks, and high savings rate of its people are going to allow an affluent China to have an increasing influence on the world.
The authors appear correct given the current state of American and European financial institutions versus the relatively healthy condition of China's major banks.
To be sure, China will carefully tread the path to global financial influence, having witnessed mistakes Japanese banks and companies made in the 1980s with over-exuberant investments abroad.
This nevertheless means huge opportunities in wealth management, insurance, private equity and other financial areas.
The authors contend that by channeling the growing spending power of China's people and economy as a whole, these sectors will be further enhanced.
One trend in particular, greening of the economy, seems especially timely. Yuann and Inch point out that the Beijing Olympics' anti-pollution measures, and Shanghai's own Suzhou Creek cleanup, provide strong evidence that pollution can and is being reduced, despite the common perception abroad.
"Supertrends of Future China" is a refreshing departure from recent doom and gloom books about China and the global economy.
During this period of global economic uncertainty, an optimistic book about business in China may seem a bit irrelevant, but the opening chapters list danger-spots for China's economy, including environmental and energy challenges.
That said, the large part of the book looks positively on the long-term prognosis and identifies the factors to support the thesis, namely that China's economy has changed and there are new opportunities as a result of current social, economic, demographic and technological forces.
The 10 trends include familiar ones such as rapid urbanization and transformation of the urban economy towards the service industry, while other trends are macroeconomic, such as the national move towards high-tech and innovative industries that keep more added-value at home.
Accordingly, there are business opportunities in diverse areas, from branding and retail shopping to capital-intensive research and development. Not all the trends are so obvious, however.
One of the book's most interesting trends, the adoption and use of technology, shows how China's population is starting to take advantage of the low-cost electronics it produces for the world.
For example, with more mobile phones and more high-speed Internet connections than even the United States, China already leads the world in market size, yet on a per-capita basis there is still huge growth potential.
It is this combination of large market and high growth potential that attracts business people.
The authors note that China's Internet of the future will not be via PCs, but will be through mobile phones, creating new chances for Internet entrepreneurs.
Other trends require some explaining. For example, the authors coin a new term, "affluencing," to describe how China's significant foreign reserves, strong banks, and high savings rate of its people are going to allow an affluent China to have an increasing influence on the world.
The authors appear correct given the current state of American and European financial institutions versus the relatively healthy condition of China's major banks.
To be sure, China will carefully tread the path to global financial influence, having witnessed mistakes Japanese banks and companies made in the 1980s with over-exuberant investments abroad.
This nevertheless means huge opportunities in wealth management, insurance, private equity and other financial areas.
The authors contend that by channeling the growing spending power of China's people and economy as a whole, these sectors will be further enhanced.
One trend in particular, greening of the economy, seems especially timely. Yuann and Inch point out that the Beijing Olympics' anti-pollution measures, and Shanghai's own Suzhou Creek cleanup, provide strong evidence that pollution can and is being reduced, despite the common perception abroad.
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