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Dead cattle in Kenya are our problem too
November 12, 2009, Thursday
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UP on the Laikipia Plateau in Kenya, a Masai tribesman must have nine cattle before he can get married.
Sam Stanyaki, a young man from Waso village, has worked hard to acquire these nine animals. But will he be able to marry in February next year with a big celebration, as he plans?
"This year, the rains have come so late that there is no grass left, and we are trucking our cattle out to places where we think the grass is better," said Stanyaki. "There won't be enough grass for everyone, and I am afraid that I'll have to sell some of my cattle at a very low price, or that some will die. If that happens, I don't know what I will do about my wedding."
For people like Sam Stanyaki across the developing world, climate change is not an abstract notion, but a very immediate reality. It is about their cattle, their crops, their access to food and fuel, their families' health and future prospects and, for many, it is simply a matter of survival.
In fact, climate change is inextricably linked with development and human progress, says the latest of the World Bank's long-running series, World Development Report (WDR) 2010, which highlights the enormous risks and opportunities presented by a rapidly warming planet.
"Developing countries, which have historically contributed little to global warming, are now, ironically, faced with 75 to 80 percent of the potential damage from it," said Justin Lin, the World Bank's chief economist.
"The latest and best scientific evidence suggests that at global warming of more than two degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, more than a billion people could face water scarcity, 15 to 30 percent of species worldwide could be doomed to extinction, and hunger will rise, particularly in tropical countries," said Rosina Bierbaum, co-director of the report, and dean of the School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan.
As the planet rapidly warms towards this grim scenario, the poorest countries are already facing the largest damages from extreme weather events, the report notes. Hurricane Ivan, for instance, caused damage equivalent to 200 percent of Grenada's GDP.
The good news, according to the report, is that a "climate-smart" world is possible, but only if countries and individuals act now, act together, and act differently than in the past.
These messages take on added importance ahead of Copenhagen, where negotiators will meet in December this year to shape an international response to climate change.
Urgent action
The WDR makes a case for urgent action because of increasingly severe warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and evidence of damage already caused, and because mitigation must begin now in order to try to keep temperatures from soaring to as much as five degrees above pre-industrial temperatures.
"What happens in the next 10 years will deeply influence the choices available to future generations," said Marianne Fay, chief economist for sustainable development at the World Bank, and co-director of the WDR. The report acknowledges that immediate action is neither easy nor cheap, but stresses that it is the best option for two reasons: first, emissions of today trap heat in the atmosphere for decades, and second, costs go up as more and more investments are made in the wrong kinds of infrastructure and energy.
While calling for countries to act together, the report stresses that high-income countries have a historical responsibility to take strong action at home to reduce their heavy carbon footprints and to help developing countries with the funds and the technology needed for low-carbon progress.
"Even today, the poorest billion people on the planet produce only 3 percent of global emissions, while the richest billion of us emit 50 percent," said Bierbaum. "So the conundrum is how to supply much-needed energy to the poorest countries so that they develop faster, but not along a high-carbon path as was taken by rich countries, which are still emitting at a prodigious rate."
Globally, 1.6 billion people still lack access to modern energy, without which no country can achieve prosperity.
Strong actions by rich countries to free up some "pollution space" in the atmosphere would help rebalance the global emissions picture as low-income countries begin to emit more in the future.
New instruments to manage land and water are not always complicated, and can be implemented even among small, low-income farmers. For example, in Andhra Pradesh, India, a simple scheme, in which farmers monitor their rain and groundwater and learn new farming and irrigation techniques, has resulted in 1 million farmers voluntarily reducing groundwater consumption to sustainable levels.
Although an increasing number of people know about climate change and believe action is needed, too few make it a priority, and too many fail to act when they have the opportunity. So the greatest challenge lies with changing behaviors and institutions, particularly in rich countries.
(The article is reprinted with permission from the World Bank's China Office. Please visit http://www.worldbank.org/wdr2010 for the World Development Report 2010.)
Sam Stanyaki, a young man from Waso village, has worked hard to acquire these nine animals. But will he be able to marry in February next year with a big celebration, as he plans?
"This year, the rains have come so late that there is no grass left, and we are trucking our cattle out to places where we think the grass is better," said Stanyaki. "There won't be enough grass for everyone, and I am afraid that I'll have to sell some of my cattle at a very low price, or that some will die. If that happens, I don't know what I will do about my wedding."
For people like Sam Stanyaki across the developing world, climate change is not an abstract notion, but a very immediate reality. It is about their cattle, their crops, their access to food and fuel, their families' health and future prospects and, for many, it is simply a matter of survival.
In fact, climate change is inextricably linked with development and human progress, says the latest of the World Bank's long-running series, World Development Report (WDR) 2010, which highlights the enormous risks and opportunities presented by a rapidly warming planet.
"Developing countries, which have historically contributed little to global warming, are now, ironically, faced with 75 to 80 percent of the potential damage from it," said Justin Lin, the World Bank's chief economist.
"The latest and best scientific evidence suggests that at global warming of more than two degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, more than a billion people could face water scarcity, 15 to 30 percent of species worldwide could be doomed to extinction, and hunger will rise, particularly in tropical countries," said Rosina Bierbaum, co-director of the report, and dean of the School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan.
As the planet rapidly warms towards this grim scenario, the poorest countries are already facing the largest damages from extreme weather events, the report notes. Hurricane Ivan, for instance, caused damage equivalent to 200 percent of Grenada's GDP.
The good news, according to the report, is that a "climate-smart" world is possible, but only if countries and individuals act now, act together, and act differently than in the past.
These messages take on added importance ahead of Copenhagen, where negotiators will meet in December this year to shape an international response to climate change.
Urgent action
The WDR makes a case for urgent action because of increasingly severe warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and evidence of damage already caused, and because mitigation must begin now in order to try to keep temperatures from soaring to as much as five degrees above pre-industrial temperatures.
"What happens in the next 10 years will deeply influence the choices available to future generations," said Marianne Fay, chief economist for sustainable development at the World Bank, and co-director of the WDR. The report acknowledges that immediate action is neither easy nor cheap, but stresses that it is the best option for two reasons: first, emissions of today trap heat in the atmosphere for decades, and second, costs go up as more and more investments are made in the wrong kinds of infrastructure and energy.
While calling for countries to act together, the report stresses that high-income countries have a historical responsibility to take strong action at home to reduce their heavy carbon footprints and to help developing countries with the funds and the technology needed for low-carbon progress.
"Even today, the poorest billion people on the planet produce only 3 percent of global emissions, while the richest billion of us emit 50 percent," said Bierbaum. "So the conundrum is how to supply much-needed energy to the poorest countries so that they develop faster, but not along a high-carbon path as was taken by rich countries, which are still emitting at a prodigious rate."
Globally, 1.6 billion people still lack access to modern energy, without which no country can achieve prosperity.
Strong actions by rich countries to free up some "pollution space" in the atmosphere would help rebalance the global emissions picture as low-income countries begin to emit more in the future.
New instruments to manage land and water are not always complicated, and can be implemented even among small, low-income farmers. For example, in Andhra Pradesh, India, a simple scheme, in which farmers monitor their rain and groundwater and learn new farming and irrigation techniques, has resulted in 1 million farmers voluntarily reducing groundwater consumption to sustainable levels.
Although an increasing number of people know about climate change and believe action is needed, too few make it a priority, and too many fail to act when they have the opportunity. So the greatest challenge lies with changing behaviors and institutions, particularly in rich countries.
(The article is reprinted with permission from the World Bank's China Office. Please visit http://www.worldbank.org/wdr2010 for the World Development Report 2010.)
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