Related News

Home » Business

British economy shrugs off Brexit worries to record robust growth

THE British economy grew at the fastest pace against any of its G7 peers in 2016, despite the second half of the year passing under the shadow of Brexit.

Official figures released on Thursday by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed the economy had grown by 0.6 percent in the final quarter of 2016, which is a first take on growth for the quarter. Revisions will follow in the coming months.

This means annual growth for 2016 was 2 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2014.

However, the 2016 growth was still on Britain's long-term trend, and leads the pack among the G7 nations.

Growth continued to be unevenly balanced, with services, up by 0.8 percent over the quarter. The services sector represents about 80 percent of the economy.

Output in production and construction was broadly unchanged.

The British economy has faced significant challenges in 2016, most notably a sharp rise in inflation brought on by the fall in sterling against foreign currencies in the immediate aftermath of the June 23 Brexit vote and since then.

From a position of 1.48 U.S. dollars to the pound, sterling traded on Thursday at 1.26 U.S. dollars.

This has begun to feed through to inflation as import costs rise alongside the greater cost of commodities.

Consumer price inflation (CPI) was at 1.6 percent in December, according to data released last week, having risen from 0.5 percent at the time of the Brexit vote.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the industry representative body British Chambers of Commerce, spoke for his sector when he said that there was a "welcome pick-up in output from manufacturing and construction".

However, Thiru added Britain remains "heavily reliant" on services and consumer spending as the main drivers of growth.

"Outperforming last year's performance in 2017 will be a challenge. Higher inflation and uncertainty over the implications of Brexit are expected to bear down on the UK's near-term growth prospects," he said.

Consumer spending is likely to feel squeezed and firms' investment intentions may well be dampened by uncertainty, resulting in a prolonged period of below trend growth.

Despite the near-unanimous expectations among economists and commentators that 2017 will be tougher than 2016, and that Brexit will dominate to the downside throughout the year, there were those who remained optimistic about growth prospects.

Ruth Gregory, Britain economist at Capital Economics, a London-based economics consultancy, said he didn't expect the slowdown to be too severe.

For a start, the strong end to last year provides a solid base for growth in 2017. What's more, while the adverse effects of the pound's fall have yet to be fully felt, the same goes for the beneficial effects, he said.

Gregory pointed to survey evidence which suggests that if the pound remains at current levels, past relationships suggests that exporters' order books will strengthen considerably further during the course of the year.

"As such, we continue to think that growth will be a reasonable (above-consensus) at 1.8 percent in 2017," said Gregory.

Such strong growth is unlikely to affect policymakers at the Bank of England (BOE), who cut rates in the aftermath of the Brexit vote as a stimulus, and who just three months ago forecast growth of 0.4 percent for the fourth quarter of 2016.

Samuel Tombs, Britain economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that the near-term momentum in GDP is unlikely to compel the BOE's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to abandon its view that the economy will slow this year as a result of the Brexit vote.

"The preliminary estimate exceeds the 0.4 percent rate anticipated by the MPC in November's Report, but it is comfortably within the usual margin of error for such forecasts," said Tombs.


Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.

沪公网安备 31010602000204号

Email this to your friend