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China needs more tools to boost grain production, Rabobank says
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CHINA’S overall food self-sufficiency ratio will likely decline to 80 percent by 2030, which calls for innovation such as land consolidation and genetically modified technology to boost production, Rabobank International said in a report yesterday.
China’s total demand for grain is likely to reach 670 million tons in 2020, said Wang Aochao, a senior analyst of the Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Department at Rabobank Shanghai.
Global food demand will increase 60 percent by the year 2050 with five billion populations on the earth. China plays an important piece to keep the “food security” of world’s second largest economy.
“A closer look reveals that China’s grain demand has been underestimated, especially in feed grain,” said Wang, “We believe yield increase is crucial to this scenario, which could be improved through a combination of land transfer policies and even GM technology.”
China’s farmland is operated on a household basis in majority by percent, and the process of merging individual plots to bigger farms is slow. Only 26 percent of the 89 million hectares of farmland has been floated and merged by the end of 2013, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
“Land consolidation will be the most efficient way to enhance the financial returns for farms,” Wang said. “Yields can be increased using less farm input product through precision agriculture.” Wang also mentioned the possibility of an upcoming opening-up policy on using GM technology. Companies with foresight are even likely to purchase GM seeds producers like Syngenta Co in the future, he predicted.
The report suggested the combination of those methods could make a 10 percent improvement in China’s self-sufficiency over the next decade, increasing grains output by 61 million tons and oilseeds output by 3 million tons.
In addition, the report raised 10 ideas including developing cold chains in China, strengthening South-South trade, and adopting big data in US agriculture to boost global food availability over the next decade.
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