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Goldman Sachs lowers China GDP forecast
By Wang Yanlin |
May 24, 2011, Tuesday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
GOLDMAN Sachs Group Inc today lowered its forecast for China's economic growth of this year amid slower industrial production and retail sales increases in the world's second-largest economy.
China's gross domestic product may expand by 9.4 percent from a year earlier in 2011 and 9.2 percent in 2012, down from previous estimates of 10 percent and 9.5 percent respectively, Goldman Sachs analyst Yu Song and Helen Qiao said today.
The United States investment bank also raised China's inflation forecast for this year to 4.7 percent from a previous 4.3 percent, and left 2012 unchanged at 3 percent.
"This is both a sharper and more extended slowdown than we had previously anticipated," said Goldman Sachs in a note. It cited the impact of higher oil prices and supply-sided constraints that may curb China's growth momentum.
It said the 20 percent oil price increase has a 15-basis-point to 20-basis-point impact on China's GDP. Also, the country's retail sales, a sector expected to spur growth, has been performing below expectations.
China's gross domestic product may expand by 9.4 percent from a year earlier in 2011 and 9.2 percent in 2012, down from previous estimates of 10 percent and 9.5 percent respectively, Goldman Sachs analyst Yu Song and Helen Qiao said today.
The United States investment bank also raised China's inflation forecast for this year to 4.7 percent from a previous 4.3 percent, and left 2012 unchanged at 3 percent.
"This is both a sharper and more extended slowdown than we had previously anticipated," said Goldman Sachs in a note. It cited the impact of higher oil prices and supply-sided constraints that may curb China's growth momentum.
It said the 20 percent oil price increase has a 15-basis-point to 20-basis-point impact on China's GDP. Also, the country's retail sales, a sector expected to spur growth, has been performing below expectations.
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