SCHEDULING a face-to-face interview with Jing Ulrich, JPMorgan's managing director and chairman of global markets for China, is no small feat. Ulrich runs a hectic schedule. She is much in demand as a pre-eminent China watcher. More than two-thirds of her time is spent travelling around the world to meet global investors. My appointment for an exclusive interview took nearly three months to arrange.

Ulrich is based in Hong Kong but spends a lot of time on the Chinese mainland.

Her credentials tend to suggest an interview with an intimidating woman.

Born in Beijing, Ulrich was educated at Harvard and Stanford universities, and worked as a fund manager in Washington, DC before joining the securities industry.

She worked for seven years as head of the China team at Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia and later as a managing director of China equities at Deutsche Bank before joining JPMorgan in 2005.

She founded and runs the bank's Hands-On China series, a series of thematic investment reports for institutional investors and an ongoing forum for corporate and financial industry experts, government officials and academics who meet to discuss the changing landscape of China. Ulrich is also credited with establishing the world's foremost China investment conference, which attracts 2,000 business leaders from China and around the world.

Ulrich received many accolades for her work as a China watcher. She was ranked one of Fortune Magazine's 50 most powerful global businesswomen for the past two years and one of Forbes 20 youngest global power women. China Entrepreneur named Ulrich one of the top 10 people of the year in March of 2011. In the same month, Business Watch Magazine included Ulrich among China's 25 top female business leaders.

Seductive quality

Despite the formidable resume, Ulrich turns out to be a very congenial, down-to-earth person. Though impeccably presented, down to high heel shoes that she admits are hurting a wrenched foot, she is easy to talk with. Her rather upbeat views have a sort of contagion about them, and her common-sense reasoning a seductive quality.

Just a couple of months ago, Ulrich got a promotion. She is now responsible for covering the firm's most senior global clients across all asset classes, and for maintaining relationships with executives at the helm of China's leading enterprises and government entities.

Ulrich said she thinks of herself beyond just an economist or analyst. "I am a student of history," she said. "I am always learning from the past."

Working in the financial industry, a sector known for its intense pressure, doesn't seem to faze Ulrich.

She still manages to allocate one hour every day for exercise, no matter where she is around the world. While working out in the gym, she sometimes even manages to read newspapers, reply to emails and works on analysis reports. In short, she's an accomplished multi-tasker.

"I love my job, or I wouldn't do it," Ulrich said. "I am grateful that I was born in an era when China was undergoing an amazing transformation. It is China, and my language and cultural background that contribute to any influence I have over investors."

Indeed, Ulrich has seen a lot of dramatic change since she began her profession as a China watcher. Back in the early 90s, when emerging markets were beginning their ascendancy, China was still a backwater for global investors.

Today, the world's second-largest economy is a magnet for business and investment.

Ulrich is fond of telling investors "go long where China is short." Her argument is based on the fact that the demand created by China's massive development will push up any commodities that China needs on the global market.

What does China need?

Well, energy, non-ferrous metals and food, to name but a few. As she predicted, prices of coal, copper, crude oil, iron and other material resources have been on the rise.

In her work, Ulrich needs to liaise with hundreds of JPMorgan teams around the world. She said her leadership style is "leading by example."

Working in an industry dominated by dark-suited men doesn't faze her. "Being a woman has never been a hurdle, a barrier or a problem for me," Ulrich said.

A synopsis of her views

On China's economy

China's economy will expand steadily in 2011. Despite cooling in real estate and related industries, growth will be held up by rising domestic consumption and the government's massive investment in low-cost housing. Continuing global economic recovery will also restore the weight of exports in China's overall economy.

Global investors have shown renewed interest in emerging markets since the final quarter of last year. Thus the growth of foreign investment in China may accelerate. The unrest in Arab counties may even funnel more funds into China.

China has announced a "prudent" monetary policy stance to calm inflation. Assuming the government won't tolerate a sharp moderation in economic growth, there is unlikely to be stringent tightening to the extent that may threaten development.

China may face the risk of an overheated economy at the start of 2011, and overall economic growth this year may moderate to 9.6 percent from 10.3 percent last year.

In the next five years, China's economy will be supported by the vast and sustaining urbanization process in central and western areas. Government spending will remain strong, together with more private investment.



On China's inflation

China's inflation rate may peak in June or July, and then moderate as the government intensifies efforts to contain inflation from a higher comparative base.

China's policymakers are trying to rein in inflation through various ways, such as tightening credit, quickening the appreciation of the yuan and some administrative measures.

Demanding that producers not raise prices is necessary, but it won't help much to curb inflation, which rose to a 32-month high of 5.4 percent in March.

China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has lifted the interest rates four times in the past six months. To soak up market liquidity, it has steadily raised the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of money commercial banks must put aside as reserves. Furthermore, Premier Wen Jiabao said for the first time that exchange rate will be used as a measure to counter heavy inflationary pressure.

With such determination, the Consumer Price Index in 2011 may expand 4.6 percent from a year earlier. Although the reading is higher than the government target of 4 percent, it will be much lower than the inflation level in other emerging markets.

Besides, inflation is not all bad for an economy. The CPI at its current level is still controllable and is in line with China's economic growth rate. Appropriate inflation will help to accelerate China's economic restructuring process.



On China's property market

There is no bubble in China's property market.

What can be called bubbles? In the United States, people don't have to make down payments and rely only on loans to buy a property. That creates bubbles. China's real estate market is completely different from that.

But the price of China's properties is really rising too fast. It is hard to say when the price will drop, albeit we have seen fewer transactions in recent months.

Property prices will eventually come down.

The Chinese government is set to offer 10 million units of budget homes this year. For developers, such properties may be less profitable, but they involve smaller risks under the current circumstances.



On China's stock market

China's stock market performed badly last year. That won't be repeated in 2011.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering around 3,000 points. We expect it to be above 3,600 by the end of the year.

Blue chips are recommended, especially shares of banks, insurance companies and producers of raw materials.

They are significantly undervalued, and the future prospects for these firms is bright.