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Stable growth foreseen, mixed views on trade
By Wang Yanlin |
February 2, 2012, Thursday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S economic performance is likely to remain stable in January but analysts are divided over trade prospects with one economist expecting the first decline in both exports and imports since 2009.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, forecasted that exports might have retreated 3.8 percent from a year earlier last month while imports might have slumped 9.9 percent.
Exports and imports still maintained growth in December by rates of 13.3 percent and 12.1 percent respectively, although exports expanded at the slowest pace in 10 months because of shrinking demand in the eurozone.
"There are seasonal factors of the Chinese New Year in January. But more decisively, a stronger yuan and the gloomy outlook of the European debt crisis make Chinese exporters suffer," Lu said.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, was more optimistic. He expected export growth of 6.7 percent and import growth of 6.2 percent.
The General Administration of Customs is scheduled to release the trade data next Friday, and the National Bureau of Statistics will unveil the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index next Thursday.
Due to the influence of the Chinese New Year, regular data for industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment for January won't be produced.
For consumer prices, Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co, expected the CPI to remain at 4.1 percent like in December.
"Because of the robust consumer demand during the Chinese New Year holiday, the inflation rate held up," Li said. "The downward trend will resume in the following months and inflation is no longer a major concern for China's economy."
Bank lending may nearly double to 1.15 trillion yuan (US$182 billion) in January from December's 640.5 billion yuan, Industrial Bank's Lu expected.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, forecasted that exports might have retreated 3.8 percent from a year earlier last month while imports might have slumped 9.9 percent.
Exports and imports still maintained growth in December by rates of 13.3 percent and 12.1 percent respectively, although exports expanded at the slowest pace in 10 months because of shrinking demand in the eurozone.
"There are seasonal factors of the Chinese New Year in January. But more decisively, a stronger yuan and the gloomy outlook of the European debt crisis make Chinese exporters suffer," Lu said.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, was more optimistic. He expected export growth of 6.7 percent and import growth of 6.2 percent.
The General Administration of Customs is scheduled to release the trade data next Friday, and the National Bureau of Statistics will unveil the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index next Thursday.
Due to the influence of the Chinese New Year, regular data for industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment for January won't be produced.
For consumer prices, Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co, expected the CPI to remain at 4.1 percent like in December.
"Because of the robust consumer demand during the Chinese New Year holiday, the inflation rate held up," Li said. "The downward trend will resume in the following months and inflation is no longer a major concern for China's economy."
Bank lending may nearly double to 1.15 trillion yuan (US$182 billion) in January from December's 640.5 billion yuan, Industrial Bank's Lu expected.
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