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Surging bank loans dominate credit expansion in November

Source: Xinhua | December 14, 2014, Sunday | Online Edition

CHINA'S bank loans surged in November amid a continued decline in shadow-banking activities as authorities seek to shore up growth and defuse risks associated with shadow banks in a slowing economy.

Yuan-denominated loans rose to 852.7 billion yuan in November,  compared to October's 548.3 billion, beating a street consensus of 655 billion. Total social financing, which measures total credit in the economy, also came in higher than expected at 1.15 trillion yuan.

The composition of aggregate financing has shifted away from off-balance sheet credit and toward bank lending, says J.P. Morgan's chief China economist Zhu Haibin. The share of bank loans in total social financing grew to 74 percent in November, up from 51.3 percent at the end of last year.

Growth of entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills all declined from the same period a year ago, statistics from China's central bank show.

Chinese regulators have tightened controls on shadow bank financing this year by discouraging banks from channeling funds through intermediaries such as trusts and fund subsidiaries or disguising loans as interbank transactions.

 A pilot that allows local governments to issue municipal bonds was also expanded in an attempt to rein in reckless borrowing by local government financing vehicles.

"We believe the on-balance sheet loan expansion is meant to avoid excessive credit tightening. As some shadow credit continued to shrink under tighter scrutiny, normal bank lending or other forms of credit have to be expanded to provide ongoing financing to the original projects,"  said Wang Tao, chief China economist with UBS.

The number came after media reports cited sources as saying China's central bank had urged commercial banks to ramp up lending at year end to shore up growth.

The Chinese economy slowed to 7.3 percent in the third quarter this year. November industrial production and investment data released on Friday pointed to further weakening in the economy.

 "Given the economy's weak growth momentum and the policymakers' focus on supporting stable economic growth, it appears that new loan growth will likely remain solid in the near term," Zhu said.

The Central Economic Work Conference that ended earlier this week has made stabilizing growth a priority for the coming year to provide a sound environment for reforms and reduce systemic financial risks. A statement released after the meeting said a more forceful fiscal policy and balanced monetary condition are needed to help the world's second-largest economy transition to its "new normal," in which headline GDP growth trends decline and growth momentum will have to come from productivity and efficiency gains, rather than massive stimulus and external demand.

"I don't think the policy makers have the obsession with GDP growth as they once did," said Thomas Byrne, an analyst who oversees sovereign ratings at rating agency Moody's.

"The new normal comes as a realization that the economy can't get as much of a boost from exports as it once did, so the alternative is that the economy has to grow slower and more efficiently and be based on productivity," said Byrne.

China's central bank's interest rates cut in late November is widely believed to be behind the surge in new loans last month. Despite growing bank credit, money supply continued to moderate in November as growth of M2, a broad measure of money supply including cash in circulation and all deposits, moderated to an eight-month low of 12.3 percent year on year.

"The bigger picture is that credit growth overall remains on a downward path," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist with Capital Economics. "A loosening of restrictions on lending has not translated into faster credit growth overall."

China set its annual target for monetary growth at 13 percent during its annual parliamentary session in March. Growth of money supply slowed after reaching a peak of 14.7 percent year on year in June.

 "The Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that China's monetary policy needs to be 'appropriate' to stabilize growth and relieve corporations' difficult operating environment. This signals that a reserve requirement ratio cut will be coming soon," said ANZ economists Liu Ligang and Zhou Hao in a research note on Friday.

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