THE hype and hopes of China's becoming the world's biggest market of green cars recently hit the brakes.

Last month, Japanese carmaker Toyota unexpectedly cancelled plans for a volume launch of its second all-electric model, the eQ - a variant of the iQ minicar - whose sales it earlier forecast in the several thousand a year.

Instead, only about 100 of the units will be available for sale, following a limited release in the US and Japan. The company also lowered its sights on the all-electric version of its best-selling sports utility vehicle RAV4, predicting sales of just 2,600 units worldwide over the next three years.

"The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet public needs, whether it be the distance the cars can run, or the costs or how long it takes to recharge them," Takeshi Uchiyamada, vice chairman of Toyota and head of its research and development, said of the company's green car retrenchment.

That is perhaps the most damning condemnation of electric cars voiced publicly by any top auto company executive so far. In short, the dream of the electric car just hasn't advanced enough to make good business sense.

It might too early to conclude that the development of electric cars is heading into a dead-end, but countries like China, which had announced grandiose plans for green driving, will need to look for more realistic ways to achieve their goals.

There are about 20,000 new energy vehicles running on the roads of China at present. The country has said it plans to have about 5 million green cars running by 2020, which would represent about 43 percent of the global fleet, according to Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisor.

Ambitious targets

The ambitious targets of the Chinese government cover all-electric vehicles and plug-in electric hybrids that can be fueled directly from the electricity grid. Electric hybrids that rely on petrol engines to run electrical power systems for higher fuel efficiency were left out of the targets, dismissed as not advanced enough.

Maybe that decision deserves a rethink in the evolution from conventional to green technology. After all, electric hybrids don't need charging infrastructure or require new driving habits, both of which take a long time to build.

Electric hybrids have proven technically and commercially feasible if you look at the millions of units sold worldwide, including 4 million by Toyota. With 15 percent of sales now related to electric hybrids, the Japanese carmaker plans to host a line of 21 such models in three years, including 14 brand new ones.

Stepping back from all-electric concepts to embrace hybrids may be inevitable if China owns up to the fact that electric-car development is jumping too fast ahead of public demand.

In the first eight months of this year, 2,661 electric hybrids were produced and sold in China. That number exceeded sales of all-electric cars by 26 percent, even after intense government promotion in 25 pilot cities. The authority are trying to encourage use of all-electric cars in public and taxi fleets and in some cities providing a maximum 120,000 yuan (US$19,188) subsidy and free car plates for private buyers.

As the saying goes, you can lead a horse to the water, but you can't make it drink. For the moment, the all-electric car may be a horse of the wrong color. In the short term, the government maybe should concentrate on reducing the fuel consumption of conventional vehicles as one step toward a greener future.

From carburetor to gas direct injection and turbo charging, gasoline-engine technologies have evolved toward better fuel economy, with fuel savings outweighing the additional costs over the life of a vehicle. Technologies like waste-heat recovery and lightweight material bodies are on their way to becoming commercially viable.

According to the International Energy Agency last month, fuel consumption of new vehicles could be cut by half in the next 20 years if policies were in place to fully unlock the potential of these available technologies.

The agency advised governments to adopt fuel-economy standards, fiscal measures and education programs to popularize the use of more fuel-efficient vehicles. For China, which has set aside 6 billion yuan a year to promote purchases of fuel-efficient vehicles, the next step should be to sweeten the incentives.

The special fund provides a maximum subsidy of only 3,000 yuan for each car with an engine of 1.6 liters or less and fuel consumption of no more than 6.3 liters per kilometer. To exert greater influence over a market now enamored of cars with big-displacement engines, the government should bolster incentives, such as a rebate on the vehicle purchase tax, which accounts for 10 percent of the retail price of eligible models.

As the international agency pointed out, "conventional combustion engine vehicles are set to be around for quite a long time." Without effective moves to promote fuel-saving vehicles, the world won't be able to sustain the energy demand of its road transport, which now consumes more than a third of earth's primary energy.

Proven oil reserves can keep the world supplied at current consumption rates for only another 40 years, and that estimation is based on figures provided by oil-producing countries and companies that tend to downplay supply shortages.

According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, China's dependency on foreign oil exceeded 55 percent last year. To improve its energy security in the long term, the country should consider promoting natural gas as an alternative vehicle fuel.

With 3.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas estimated to be technically recoverable in rock formations, China is sitting on the world's largest reserve of shale gas. Its extraction can be difficult and energy-consuming, but the development of hydraulic fracturing technology and horizontal drilling led by the US is making the gas more available than ever.

Cheap and easy

Converting a car to run on natural gas is quite cheap and easy. There are already kits for sale to do the conversion to either compressed or liquefied natural gas, both of which need a special cylinder for fuel storage. A tank installed in the trunk may reduce storage space for users, but that can be moved under the body of the vehicle in factory-built models.

Up to 14.8 million vehicles around the world were powered by natural gas at the end of last year, and their performance in terms of horsepower, travel distance and cruising speed is comparable with traditional gasoline engines. When it comes to emissions, natural gas is much cleaner than fossil fuels. One can't help but wonder why natural gas vehicles have been left out of the mix in China's planning for cleaner auto emissions.

Perhaps this country has become too preoccupied with the idea that it can seize on the electric car in its desire to leap-frog technology in auto design and manufacturing and become a kingpin in global carmaking.

It's time to wake up and remember that technology should not be developed for its own sake but for consumers who hold the purchasing power.