Ebola crisis’ US$32.6b threat to West Africa
Print Edition
THE deadly Ebola epidemic could deal a US$32 billion-plus blow to the West African economy over the next year if officials cannot get it under control, the World Bank warned yesterday.
If efforts to halt its spread out of a three-country core — Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea — are not successful by December, the entire region faces a real threat of economic catastrophe, the World Bank said in a new report.
“In broader regional terms, the economic impacts could be limited if immediate national and international responses succeed in containing the epidemic and mitigating aversion behavior,” it said.
“If, on the other hand, the epidemic spreads into neighboring countries, some of which have much larger economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015.”
The bank noted that small outbreaks in Nigeria and Senegal have been quickly stifled, showing the potential for fast and resolute reactions.
The disease has so far killed nearly 3,500 people, has already taken a toll on the economy of the three countries, stifling production and consumption.
In the best case, Ebola being brought under control by the end of 2014, the bank says, the economic cost will be about US$359 million in the three countries this year and another US$129 million next year.
For West Africa, the cost will be from US$3.8 to US$9 billion.
But in the case that containment comes more slowly in the three core affected countries, and outbreaks surface in neighboring countries, the costs will soar for all, it said.
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