ADB reduces growth forecasts for China and developing Asia
Print Edition
THE Asian Development Bank yesterday trimmed its growth forecasts for China and developing Asia this year and next owing to weakness in the world’s No. 2 economy.
However, it said a pickup in investment and the removal of red tape in India’s economy would continue to boost growth in the country but said that New Delhi must continue with its reforms.
After a slow first half, full-year gross domestic product growth in China is now estimated at 7 percent this year and 6.8 percent next year, the Manila-based lender said in a statement. That compares with its March estimate of 7.2 percent in 2015 and 7 percent next year.
“Slower growth in (China) is likely to have a noticeable effect on the rest of Asia given its size and its close links with other countries in the region,” chief ADB economist Wei Shang-Jin said.
Weaker-than-expected external demand, a declining working-age population and rising wages were all factors in the slowing growth of the Asian economic powerhouse, he added.
China on Wednesday said its economy grew 7 percent in the April-June quarter, the same as the previous three months and in line with its target for the year. However, that would mark the slowest pace since 1990.
Developing Asia as a whole is now expected to grow 6.1 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2016, the ADB said, slower than the 6.3 percent previously predicted for each year.
Inflation was revised down to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent this year, with the 2016 forecast of 3 percent unchanged.
Softness in major industrialized economies should lead to growth in East Asia — including China and South Korea — to ease to 6.2 percent this year instead of 6.5 percent, the ADB said. It did not say if its 2016 forecast of 6.3 percent growth for the sub-region was changed.
Forecasts for India were flat at 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year, backed by a healthy monsoon and new investments.
Growth next year will be driven by continued service-sector expansion and “the removal of procedural bottlenecks that have hampered investment,” the ADB said.
However, it added “risks to growth prospects could emerge from further delay in passing some legislation crucial to easing land acquisition for industry and to implementing a uniform goods and services tax.”
India’s advance would help South Asian growth rise to 7.3 percent this year instead of 7.2 percent, the ADB said, with better-than-expected growth in Bangladesh balancing a quake-induced slowdown in Nepal.
In 2016, the sub-region should grow 7.6 percent, flat from March’s forecast.
Southeast Asia’s economic growth forecast was cut to 4.6 percent this year from 4.9 percent, and 5.1 percent next year from 5.3 percent.
Lower global commodity prices and the Russian recession will dampen growth in Central Asia, with the 2016 growth cut to 4.2 percent from 4.5 percent, though the 2015 forecast of 3.5 percent was unchanged.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
