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Analysts anticipate better March economic data
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China's economic data for March may show some improvement from the dismal growth in the previous two months, analysts said before new statistics are released next week.
But any improvement in March won't change the big picture of a weak first quarter in the world's second largest economy, they said.
Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said he expected gross domestic product growth to have softened to 7.4 percent in the first three months, lower than the country's target of 7.5 percent for this year.
"While first-quarter growth was likely quite weak, March saw tentative signs that activity is picking up," Wang said. "Power generation growth sped up and railway transport freight and crude oil processing accelerated as well."
However, this modest recovery in March may only partly offset weakness in January and February, Wang added.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, agreed with Wang’s view of the economy.
"March is a time when everything returns to normal after the disruptions of the Spring Festival holiday," Tang said. "We look forward to seeing some improvements as factories got back to work."
Tang projected industrial production growth of 9 percent in March from 8.6 percent in the first two months, and fixed-asset investment growth of 18.5 percent last month, up from 17.9 percent in the January-February period.
Data already released showed that state-owned manufacturers reported their first rebound in four months in March.
China's economic performance exhibited signs of feebleness since the start of this year. New stimuli were announced on Wednesday to steady the economy. Measures included tax cuts for small firms and speeding up the construction of railway lines.
Wang at UBS expected growth momentum to rebound visibly in the second quarter on the back of reduced policy uncertainty, an acceleration of ongoing construction and investment, and the launch of new projects already approved.
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