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Analysts cut Brazil's growth forecast
Source: Bloomberg News |
November 20, 2012, Tuesday
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Print Edition
ANALYSTS covering Brazil's economy cut their forecast for growth next year for the first time since August, as the world's second-largest emerging economy continues to recover unevenly amid stimulus measures.
Brazil's gross domestic product will expand 3.96 percent next year, according to the median estimate in a central bank survey of about 100 analysts published yesterday. Analysts had forecast 4 percent growth since the study carried out on August 3, when they cut their estimate from 4.05 percent. The analysts also cut their GDP forecast for this year to 1.52 percent from 1.54 percent.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's administration has pumped stimulus into Brazil's US$2.5 trillion economy. Policymakers have cut taxes for consumers and companies, lowered reserve requirements to free up billions of reais in credit and announced plans to cut energy costs next year. Since August 2011, Brazil's central bank has also cut the benchmark Selic rate to a record 7.25 percent, and bank Governor Alexandre Tombini on November 7 reaffirmed plans to keep rates low for a "prolonged time."
The stimulus measures so far have generated an uneven recovery. Brazil's seasonally adjusted economic activity index, a proxy for GDP, fell for the first time in six months in September on slower industrial output and auto sales. Consumer default rates in September remained at the highest level since November 2009, despite bank loan rates that have sunk to near-record lows amid government pressure.
Brazil's gross domestic product will expand 3.96 percent next year, according to the median estimate in a central bank survey of about 100 analysts published yesterday. Analysts had forecast 4 percent growth since the study carried out on August 3, when they cut their estimate from 4.05 percent. The analysts also cut their GDP forecast for this year to 1.52 percent from 1.54 percent.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's administration has pumped stimulus into Brazil's US$2.5 trillion economy. Policymakers have cut taxes for consumers and companies, lowered reserve requirements to free up billions of reais in credit and announced plans to cut energy costs next year. Since August 2011, Brazil's central bank has also cut the benchmark Selic rate to a record 7.25 percent, and bank Governor Alexandre Tombini on November 7 reaffirmed plans to keep rates low for a "prolonged time."
The stimulus measures so far have generated an uneven recovery. Brazil's seasonally adjusted economic activity index, a proxy for GDP, fell for the first time in six months in September on slower industrial output and auto sales. Consumer default rates in September remained at the highest level since November 2009, despite bank loan rates that have sunk to near-record lows amid government pressure.
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