Analysts expect inflation rate to decline
By Joy Wang |
May 7, 2011, Saturday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S inflation rate in April may ease from March's 32-month high due to softening economic growth and various efforts made to tackle runaway price increases, analysts said.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may have dropped by less than 5 percent in April, according to some analysts' forecasts. Their predictions were based on moderating industrial activity last month and easing input prices at the factory gate.
Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co, said March's CPI may have been the peak in the current inflationary cycle.
"The government has taken strong measures to halt inflation," Li said. "Rising food costs, a major driver of current inflation, have shown signs of moderation."
Li estimated inflationary pressure may continue to weaken because imported inflation, or inflation coming from high commodity prices overseas, will ease.
The prices of crude oil, gold and silver dropped sharply this week after the death of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release April's inflation rate, along with other key economic data, next Wednesday.
In March, consumer prices surged by a 32-month high of 5.4 percent, exceeding the government's full-year target of 4 percent for a third consecutive month.
To curb price jumps, the central bank this year has lifted interest rates twice and the reserve requirement ratio four times to soak up market liquidity.
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at the Industrial Bank, said the central bank is unlikely to relax its monetary policy stance despite the possible retreat of inflation.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may have dropped by less than 5 percent in April, according to some analysts' forecasts. Their predictions were based on moderating industrial activity last month and easing input prices at the factory gate.
Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co, said March's CPI may have been the peak in the current inflationary cycle.
"The government has taken strong measures to halt inflation," Li said. "Rising food costs, a major driver of current inflation, have shown signs of moderation."
Li estimated inflationary pressure may continue to weaken because imported inflation, or inflation coming from high commodity prices overseas, will ease.
The prices of crude oil, gold and silver dropped sharply this week after the death of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release April's inflation rate, along with other key economic data, next Wednesday.
In March, consumer prices surged by a 32-month high of 5.4 percent, exceeding the government's full-year target of 4 percent for a third consecutive month.
To curb price jumps, the central bank this year has lifted interest rates twice and the reserve requirement ratio four times to soak up market liquidity.
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at the Industrial Bank, said the central bank is unlikely to relax its monetary policy stance despite the possible retreat of inflation.
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