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Analysts expect weak economic data for November
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CHINA'S economic data for November will likely be weak, partly distorted by the temporary production halt enforced during the APEC summit in Beijing last month, analysts said before figures are released next week.
Even without the summit, the numbers likely would point to an economic slowdown, they said.
"November economic activity likely weakened due to the APEC closures," said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS. "But as the Purchasing Managers' Index showed, the underlying real trend would likely be fairly limp anyway."
The official PMI, a gauge of operating conditions in the manufacturing sector, grew at the slowest pace in seven months in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, said the data for November will see little improvement as the effect of the interest rate cut hasn’t had enough time to filter into the economy.
"China's economic growth saw a notable slowdown in the third quarter," Lian said. "But the pace of that slowdown has stabilized in the past two months."
Lian predicted China's exports would grow 8 percent in November, down from 11.6 percent a month earlier, and fixed-asset investment would slow 0.1 percentage point to 15.8 percent in the first 11 months. But industrial production, retail sales and imports are likely to see marginal improvement, Lian said.
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