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Analysts predict rebound in June inflation
By Wang Yanlin |
July 4, 2013, Thursday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S inflation may have rebounded in June due to a lower comparative base a year earlier and higher pork prices, analysts predicted ahead of official data to be released next Tuesday.
Tang Jianwei, a Bank of Communications economist, said the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may rise between 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said it could rebound to 2.6 percent.
May's increase was 2.1 percent.
But Zhou said this did not mean that demand was recovering. The biggest trigger for June's higher inflation was the low comparative base in 2012, he said.
Inflation growth settled at 2.2 percent in June 2012, after May's 3 percent.
Tang said the price of pork was another reason, jumping more than 4 percent this June from the lows in the middle of May when the consumption fell due to the bird flu crisis.
Tang said China's inflation growth was likely to land at 2.4 percent in the first six months, far below the government target of 3.5 percent for the year. "Such a rate indicates the insufficient demand at home, which provides room for policy easing moves."
Tang Jianwei, a Bank of Communications economist, said the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may rise between 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said it could rebound to 2.6 percent.
May's increase was 2.1 percent.
But Zhou said this did not mean that demand was recovering. The biggest trigger for June's higher inflation was the low comparative base in 2012, he said.
Inflation growth settled at 2.2 percent in June 2012, after May's 3 percent.
Tang said the price of pork was another reason, jumping more than 4 percent this June from the lows in the middle of May when the consumption fell due to the bird flu crisis.
Tang said China's inflation growth was likely to land at 2.4 percent in the first six months, far below the government target of 3.5 percent for the year. "Such a rate indicates the insufficient demand at home, which provides room for policy easing moves."
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